Showing posts with label 2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Elizabeth Warren on Hillary Clinton’s qualifications for 2016: No comment.

ElizabethWarrenonHillaryClinton’squalificationsfor2016:

Elizabeth Warren on Hillary Clinton’s qualifications for 2016: No comment.

posted at 5:21 pm on August 20, 2014 by Noah Rothman

We are regularly told by our prognosticating betters that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton might as well already be the Democratic Party’s 2016 nominee. She is inevitable; more inevitable, in fact, than the last time she was inevitable.

But there has been grumbling on the progressive left about Clinton for months. She is seen by many in the Democratic Party’s left-wing as too close to Wall Street, too hawkish on foreign affairs, and behind the eight ball on social issues like supporting same-sex marriage rights. Will they settle for Hillary? Sure. Are they enthusiastic about a second Clinton run at the White House? Not in the least.

A handful of third tier Democrats are already openly flirting with challenging Clinton from her left, most notably Vermont’s self-described socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders. But the progressive heart belongs to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

That is why this clip from the Boston-based Fox 25 News, via Joe Pounder and America Rising, is only going to give the progressive wing of Warren’s party what may turn out to be undue hope that she is reconsidering her decision not to make a run at the White House:

While not quite a vote of no confidence in Clinton, this certainly does not qualify as a rousing endorsement either.

Meanwhile, Warren is busily creating a lot of good will among her fellow Democratic colleagues in Congress. “Warren is filling a void left by the president’s low approval ratings and the dearth of other national Democratic leaders with an ability to motivate voters in tight races to turn out this fall,” the LA Times reported.

Warren, who defeated incumbent Scott Brown to win her Senate seat just two years ago, is emerging as the Democratic Party’s latest campaign trail superstar. She can rev up the progressive base in Democratic strongholds and appeal to voters in some unlikely places, including conservative states.

Thanks largely to her crusades against Wall Street profiteering and her plain-spoken style, Warren has become one of the most prolific fundraisers in the effort to help Democrats retain control of the Senate. Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win the majority.

So far in this election cycle, she has raised more than $3 million for fellow Democrats. Although that’s just a fraction of what top party leaders like House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi haul in for congressional candidates, it’s impressive for a newcomer like Warren compared with other ascendant colleagues.

But many of those candidates Warren has raised money for have also been tapping into the Democratic Party’s networks with PACs, lobbyists, and high-dollar donors in the financial industry. As Hot Air’s Karl noted accurately, Warren cannot be considered a serious presidential contender until she starts raising funds for herself and proving that she can be a competitive fundraiser with both the grassroots and the high-dollar donor base. Until then, Warren should not be considered a likely 2016 candidate.

That having been said, she is no longer doing very much to tamp down speculation regarding her potential interest in Barack Obama’s job.

This post has been updated since its original publication.


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Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Kochs looking for a little revenge in Nevada?

KochslookingforalittlerevengeinNevada?

Kochs looking for a little revenge in Nevada?

posted at 3:21 pm on August 19, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Well, who could blame them? After Harry Reid used the Senate floor for weeks to demagogue the owners of Koch Industries for their legal and instructive engagement in the political process, he had to be expecting a little pushback. The Kochs don’t do anything small, however, and Politico’s Ken Vogel and Burgess Everett report that they are laying the foundation for a two-year effort to send the Senate Majority Leader into a much-deserved political oblivion:

Harry Reid’s reelection is more than two years off, but the Koch brothers’ political machine is already methodically laying the groundwork that will be used to try to take him out.

The efforts in recent months have been largely subterranean, but they are unmistakable. A handful of nonprofit groups in the vast political network helmed by allies of the conservative billionaires Charles and David Koch have established or expanded permanent ground operations in Reid’s backyard. Focused on wooing key demographics like Latinos and veterans, they’ve also paid for ads assailing the Senate Democratic leader. …

As Reid last week ambled from an SUV to a side entrance of an MGM Grand here for a speech to the supportive United Steelworkers International Convention, he told POLITICO he wasn’t worried about the Koch forces’ buildup in his backyard. “I’ve always been targeted. … That’s not news,” he said, playfully dismissing a question about whether there was a personal element to the Koch effort. “I don’t see that they have any reason to come after me. Why would they?”

But a few minutes later, after taking the stage to Bob Marley’s “Get Up, Stand Up,” Reid confided to 2,500 cheering union members that, in fact, he is trying to personally antagonize the Kochs.

“Ladies and gentlemen, when I was walking in here today, somebody grabbed me from one of the Washington publications and said ‘the Koch brothers say they’re here organizing in Nevada,’” Reid regaled the crowd. “I said ‘why would they be worried about me? What have I done to bother them?’”

After allowing a brief, dramatic pause, he answered his own question boastfully: “Only everything I can, right?”

Reid’s bravado aside, he has bigger fish to fry at the moment. His biggest struggle is staying Majority Leader in the Senate for the next two years, and that’s looking less and less likely as the midterm campaigns heat up. He blew up the Montana race, which is unwinnable now, and the South Dakota race as well. He bragged to a Reno newspaper that the Democrats are in good position to retain control of the upper chamber, unless …

In the face of a challenging electoral landscape for his party in this year’s midterms, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid predicted this week they’ll hold onto their tenuous majority in the Senate barring some unforeseen incident.

“We’ll keep the majority unless something unexpected happens,”the Nevada Democrat told the Reno Gazette-Journal ahead of a local party confab Sunday.

Mr. Reid’s party currently holds a five-seat majority in the upper chamber, but open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia appear likely to flip to the GOP at this point. That means Republicans essentially need to unseat at least three incumbent Democrats in a handful of winnable races in states like North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana, while retaining GOP-held seats in competitive races in Kentucky and Georgia, to re-take control of the chamber.

That’s for public consumption. Privately, Reid is seething over a White House that isn’t lifting a finger to help him on the election or much of anything else, the New York Times reports:

To Democrats in Congress who have worked with Mr. Obama, the indifference conveyed to Mr. Reid, one of the president’s most indispensable supporters, was frustratingly familiar. In one sense, Mr. Obama’s response was a reminder of what made him such an appealing figure in the first place: his almost innate aversion to the partisan squabbles that have left Americans so jaded and disgruntled with their political system. But nearly six years into his term, with his popularity at the lowest of his presidency, Mr. Obama appears remarkably distant from his own party on Capitol Hill, with his long neglect of would-be allies catching up to him.

In interviews, nearly two dozen Democratic lawmakers and senior congressional aides suggested that Mr. Obama’s approach has left him with few loyalists to effectively manage the issues erupting abroad and at home and could imperil his efforts to leave a legacy in his final stretch in office.

Grumbling by lawmakers about a president is nothing unusual. But what is striking now is the way prominent Democrats’ views of Mr. Obama’s shortcomings are spilling out into public, and how resigned many seem that the relationship will never improve. In private meetings, Mr. Reid’s chief of staff, David Krone, has voiced regular dismay to lawmakers and top aides about White House operations and competency across a range of issues, according to several Democrats on Capitol Hill.

So yes, Reid has to be a little nervous about what’s coming, especially since it’s mostly self-inflicted. Don’t be surprised if Reid looks for an opening to retire rather than run again in 2016.

Update: I wrote North Dakota when I meant South Dakota. I’ve fixed it above, and thanks to the commenters who flagged the error.


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Video: “Who gets to hold her crown while she speaks?”

Video:“Whogetstoholdhercrownwhile

Video: “Who gets to hold her crown while she speaks?”

posted at 10:41 am on August 19, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

A fun rant like this one from my friend Jon Ralston, the dean of Nevada political analysts, should not be missed — especially when it hits so closely on point to the issue at hand. And the issue at hand here is the jaw-dropping details of the contract between the UNLV Foundation and Hillary Clinton, the most outrageous of which Jon details in this short clip transcribed by Daniel Halper. But this touches on a larger point about Hillary Clinton and the growing impulse to bend the knee in American politics:

And now, a word about royalty. We don’t have kings and queens in America, or at least we shouldn’t. But when I see the red carpet UNLV is rolling out for Hillary Clinton in two months I start to wonder. Unless you’re a mindless partisan, the details of that contract with the UNLV Foundation should disturb you. They were uncovered, as I said by the RJ’s Lara Myers, and published over the weekend. The contract reads as if Hillary is being given the, yes,  royal treatment. Now it is bad enough that the UNLV Foundation folks agreed to that outrageous $225,000 fee as students struggle to make ends meet.

But the contract they signed shows they were willing to agree to terms no self-respecting institution would. She wants a private jet, a presidential suite, rooms for staff, and, get this, all cell phone charges for everyone paid for. Oh, and if the $225,000 is not enough UNLV has to spring for a stenographer, and no one gets to see the transcription except — Hillary. No media coverage at all, no statements, keep the rabble out of the room. The contract also says Hillary is not — and this is in all caps — endorsing the sponsor. That is, she does not want anyone to think that she actually likes UNLV. No one can take a picture of Hillary and post it to Facebook or tweet it unless, of course, you get her agent’s permission.

I gather UNLV held firm on a provision that no one was allowed to look her directly in the eye and that men were supposed to bow and women curtsy before her. I don’t know who should be more embarrassed, Hillary or UNLV? I only have one question: Who gets to hold her crown while she speaks?

We don’t have royalty in America? We certainly seem to want it. This country was held in thrall for decades by the Kennedy family, not politically as much as culturally and aspirationally. We even called Kennedy’s term “Camelot” after the highest (fictional) ideal of royal governance, which is a strange mythology for a republic to adopt. To a lesser extent, we have seen the same impulse with the Bushes, the Roosevelts, and the Clintons — even to the point of speculating already when Chelsea will begin her long trek back to the White House.

In other systems, we could explain that with noblesse oblige, the duty of the nobility to serve the nation through wielding power (with widely varying degrees of reluctance). We don’t have that type of class system in the US except in established wealth, the sense in which the Kennedys, the Bushes, and the Roosevelts all could claim some kind of service motive, however true it might be. The Clintons became wealthy because of their wielding of power, albeit indirectly, after Bill Clinton worked his way up through the political system in the usual manner of the hoi polloi to the Oval Office: Attorney General, three terms as governor, and then two as President.

Hillary hasn’t even done that. She’s worked her way up by dint of being married to Bill Clinton, and then carpetbagged her way to a Senate seat in New York by riding his coattails on Bill’s exit from the White House. She did serve as Secretary of State for four years on the basis of that springboard, producing a record of almost no distinction in a period of notable disasters. And yet, Hillary Clinton not only barely lost the opportunity to be President in 2008, she’s getting treated as royalty while trying to make a second run at the top job based on not much else than the family brand.

It’s not just the Clintons, either. It’s the Bushes, the Cheneys, and the Kennedys (still), and probably the Obamas later on. It’s not their fault for running; it’s our fault for falling back to the millenia-old notion that certain families have some sort of precedence when it comes to wielding power, whether that comes from being anointed by God to the nobility or from today’s market-oriented ideas of celebrity and branding strength. A constitutional republic should have more sense, and more ambition for self-governance, than to fall back into lazy patterns of reaching for the familiar rather than seeking out those who may have new and better approaches.

Who should be most embarrassed? We should.

Note: Jon’s joining me today on The Ed Morrissey Show, which starts at 4 ET. Be sure to tune in!


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Monday, August 18, 2014

Hillary speaking-circuit demands include private jet and … cone of silence?

Hillaryspeaking-circuitdemandsincludeprivatejetand…

Hillary speaking-circuit demands include private jet and … cone of silence?

posted at 10:01 am on August 18, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Hillary Clinton has come under fire this summer for her speaking fees, including some charged for events at universities and colleges where many students put themselves deep in debt to get their education. Clinton and her defenders insist that those fees get paid out by donors, not the schools themselves, and that some of those fees get donated to the Clintons’ charitable foundation rather than into her pocket. Those pockets get a pretty cushy ride back and forth to these events, though, as the contract for her UNLV speech uncovered by the Las Vegas Review-Journal details:

According to a May 31, 2013 email, Clinton’s standard contract usually includes:

■ Round-trip transportation on a chartered private jet “e.g., a Gulfstream 450 or larger jet,” plus round-trip business class travel for two advance staffers who will arrive up to three days in advance.

■ Hotel accommodations selected by Clinton’s staff and including “a presidential suite for Secretary Clinton and up to three (3) adjoining or contiguous single rooms for her travel aides and up to two (2) additional single rooms for the advance staff.”

■ A $500 travel stipend to cover out-of-pocket costs for Clinton’s lead travel aide.

■ Meals and incidentals for Clinton, her travel aides and advance staff, as well as all phone charges.

■ Final approval of all moderators or introducers.

Her speaking fee hits $300,000, but she cut UNLV a break down to $225,000. According to the LVRJ, she dropped the price because her travel expenses were no longer an issue, although the document didn’t explain why. Laura Myers speculated that Clinton found other donors to cover the cost of her Gulfstream and high-priced accommodations while in Las Vegas.

The private-jet requirement should raise eyebrows on the Left. After all, if Hillary Clinton wants to win the Democratic nomination for President, she’ll have to join in the global-warming demagoguery that has become de rigueur among the progressive cognoscenti. How will her constant demand for private Gulfstream travel play with the AGW crowd? That’s a lifestyle that produces a carbon footprint on a Godzilla scale, if not an Al Gore mansion scale. They’d rally behind her in a general election, no doubt, but in a contested primary Clinton may find herself challenged on authenticity, too.

And perhaps the media should take close note of the requirement for the historical record, too. Clinton didn’t allow for media access to her events despite the fact that (a) she’s trading off of her status as a former public official, and (b) she’s very obviously making a play for a run for higher office. The only person allowed to even keep an official record of her remarks has to be on her payroll [see update -- it's worse than that]. Does that remind anyone of the current administration and its attempt to make Pete Souza the only eyes of the media? If they don’t want a rerun of the past six years, this might be a good time for the national press to start asking what Hillary Clinton has to hide, before they have to do it from the White House briefing room.

ABC’s Good Morning America had a good laugh about the contract this morning:

The “brown M&Ms” reference comes from the contract Van Halen used for years for its stage shows, but it was widely misunderstood. Their contract did include a requirement to provide a bowl of M&Ms with all of the brown-shelled candies removed, but it included a great many other requirements as well, mostly dealing with the technical aspects of their complicated theatrics. If the band arrived in their dressing room and saw brown M&Ms in the bowl, they knew immediately that the venue had not read the contract and could react immediately to the more important failures. It was the canary in the coal mine.

Perhaps the media should stop laughing and look at the canaries in this particular coal mine, especially on the insularity and hypocrisy of the woman they’d otherwise soon start hailing as the Next Political Inevitability.

Update: Actually, as a commenter pointed out, I was wrong about the stenographer being on Hillary’s payroll. The client has to foot the bill for the stenographer – while not having access to the record he/she produces. Yikes.


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Friday, August 15, 2014

Poll: Rand Paul’s support slipping among tea partiers?

Poll:RandPaul’ssupportslippingamongteapartiers?

Poll: Rand Paul’s support slipping among tea partiers?

posted at 12:01 pm on August 15, 2014 by Allahpundit

A nice catch by WaPo’s Aaron Blake. Obvious caveats: It’s just one poll and tea party subsamples are necessarily small and prone to large margins of error. But as we get closer to the primaries and Paul breaks with conservative orthodoxy in ever more interesting ways, his standing on the right will be closely watched. This is just one data point, but do note it.

And indeed, it seems actual tea partiers are apparently noticing that Paul isn’t exactly their cup of tea. The new McClatchy-Marist College poll of the 2016 GOP presidential primary shows Paul’s share of the tea party vote dropping from 20 percent in April to 7 percent today — tied for fifth. Cruz, meanwhile, leads this demographic with 15 percent.

Similarly, an NBC News/Marist College poll of the Iowa GOP caucuses last month showed Paul leading Cruz and tied for first overall. But while Cruz’s support was almost completely among tea partiers, Paul actually did no better among that segment than he did overall. He was tied with Rick Santorum among tea party supporters.

Both of these polls have small sample sizes and shouldn’t be taken as gospel, but it’s notable that Paul doesn’t appear as reliant on tea party support as the other big supposed tea party candidate, Cruz. That’s by design. Paul is reaching out to the minority groups and religious conservatives for a reason; he knows he’s not the tea party-est of the tea partiers and that he can’t/won’t rely on their votes to deliver the GOP nomination in 2016.

The raw number is less interesting than the trend. Paul could make up eight percent in a primary campaign in one especially good week. But he’s trending downward, at least as far as Marist can tell. How come? Cruz, obviously, is gobbling up some of his support. He’s an orthodox conservative, just as most tea partiers are; whatever else Rand may be, he’s not orthodox. The higher Cruz’s profile gets, the more Rand will suffer on the right unless/until Cruz declares he’s not running. It could also be, of course, that Paul’s piled up a few too many heresies lately irrespective of what Cruz has been up to. Righties might indulge him a few breaks with convention but lately it seems like his agenda is nothing but breaks — he’s pushing sentencing reforms, criticizing the police for military-style riot control, and walking the usual tightrope on foreign interventions. At some point, the idea sets in that he’s not “one of us” and suddenly he’s tied in a 2016 primary poll of tea partiers with Chris Christie and actually trailing Jeb Bush.

One related problem for Rand that tends to be overlooked, I think, is the attitudinal difference between him and Cruz. It’s not merely that Cruz is more in line with conservative orthodoxy; it’s that he has the right enemies. I mentioned that the other day when I posted that little game of word association Paul played with a reporter in Kentucky. When asked what word came to mind when Chris Christie is mentioned, he smirked and said “bridges.” When asked what word came to mind when Obama is mentioned, he didn’t say “IRS” or “executive overreach” or “ObamaCare” or “Benghazi” or “Fast & Furious” or any of the other 8,000 things that set tea partiers off about The One. He said “affable but ineffectual.” And I understand why he said it — he’s not going to throw a roundhouse at the first black president in the middle of courting black voters — but it’s impossible to imagine Cruz responding the same way. He would have laid Obama out because he knows that’s what his base wants and he’s superb at delivering it. Nor is it just Obama whom Rand’s gone a bit soft on. He endorsed Mitch McConnell and defended Thad Cochran’s tactics of wooing Democratic voters to win a Republican primary. One thing tea partiers cherish about Cruz is that establishmentarians hate him and Cruz seems to relish it. Rand doesn’t; on the contrary, he’s gone out of his way to make nice with them. There’s obviously strategy there too given his fears of being marginalized in the primary as a kook and outspent by an establishment opponent, but don’t be surprised if some tea partiers react badly to it.

And yet, and yet, if Cruz decides not to run and to endorse Paul instead, he’d almost certainly be the tea-party consensus choice and a legit contender for the nomination, no? He may not be their favorite anymore but he’s not anathema.


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Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Rand Paul sums up Chris Christie in one word: “Bridges”

RandPaulsumsupChrisChristieinone

Trouble in paradise: Hillary calls Obama to heal rift over Atlantic interview

Troubleinparadise:HillarycallsObamatoheal

Trouble in paradise: Hillary calls Obama to heal rift over Atlantic interview

posted at 4:01 pm on August 12, 2014 by Allahpundit

She didn’t mean to attack him, you know. That razor-sharp line about how “Don’t do stupid stuff” isn’t an organizing principle was aimed at some other administration that takes “Don’t do stupid stuff” as its organizing principle.

“Secretary Clinton was proud to serve with President Obama, she was proud to be his partner in the project of restoring American leadership and advancing America’s interests and values in a fast changing world,” said the statement, shared with POLITICO.

“She continues to share his deep commitment to a smart and principled foreign policy that uses all the tools at our disposal to achieve our goals. Earlier today, the secretary called President Obama to make sure he knows that nothing she said was an attempt to attack him, his policies, or his leadership.”

It added: “Secretary Clinton has at every step of the way touted the significant achievements of his presidency, which she is honored to have been part of as his secretary of state. While they’ve had honest differences on some issues, including aspects of the wicked challenge Syria presents, she has explained those differences in her book and at many points since then. Some are now choosing to hype those differences but they do not eclipse their broad agreement on most issues. Like any two friends who have to deal with the public eye, she looks forward to hugging it out when she they see each other tomorrow night.”

In fairness to her, I’m surprised at how much Team O has pushed back. His foreign policy rating is in the toilet; she’s the nominee-in-waiting. Of course she’s going to draw some distinctions between them, and it’s to the party’s benefit that she does so. Instead you’ve got Obama grumbling about “horsesh*t” criticism, Axelrod publicly calling her out on Twitter, and unnamed administration officials whispering to the Times that she was oddly quiet about some of these big international challenges back when she had the means to influence them.

But at the time of the Obama administration’s internal debate over that decision, several officials said, Mrs. Clinton’s advocacy was far less thunderous: The United States had tried every diplomatic gambit with Syria, she said, and nothing else had worked, so why not try funneling weapons to the moderate rebels…

At the end of her tenure, for example, Mrs. Clinton wrote a memo to Mr. Obama recommending that the United States lift its half-century-old trade embargo against Cuba. It was not a position that she seriously advocated while at the State Department, officials said.

In the interview with The Atlantic, Mrs. Clinton said she had always been in the camp of those who believed that Iran had no right to enrich uranium. Yet in December 2010, she was one of the first American officials to acknowledge publicly, in an interview with the BBC, that Iran could emerge from a nuclear deal with the right to enrich.

When forced to choose between protecting their own legacy and making life easier for the next Democrat to lead the ticket, the Hopenchange boys have made their choice. If this ship is destined to sink, they’re going to make sure that Hillary takes on some water too. Excellent.

Now she has her own choice to make. Having seen how hard the White House is willing to tug on her leash as she tries to walk away, does she tone down her criticism of them on foreign policy or risk making enemies of them by keeping at it? I’m thinking she’ll probably accentuate the positive: Now that he’s bombing ISIS, she can communicate her own hawkishness to voters by cheerleading for that. Liberals might tolerate her being a loud-and-proud interventionist but asking them to tolerate it while she’s tearing down a president they voted for twice, who himself is a bit more hawkish than some of them would prefer, might be too much. Frankly, I wonder if she needs to ostentatiously brand herself a hawk at all at this point. She’s eager to do that, I assume, because she’s worried that some voters won’t trust a woman to be commander-in-chief (especially given that her biggest government role was in diplomacy, not at the Pentagon), but her reputation as a hawk is well known among people who follow politics. It’ll be well known to low-information voters too after she spends a year on the trail. There’s no need to pick a fight with Obama right now. Especially when his team is as willing to fight back as they are.


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Hillary antagonizing liberals and conservatives with foreign-policy shifts?

Hillaryantagonizingliberalsandconservativeswithforeign-policyshifts?

Hillary antagonizing liberals and conservatives with foreign-policy shifts?

posted at 1:21 pm on August 12, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive. Sir Walter Scott’s warning on the complications of dishonesty seems to apply to the recent travails of Hillary Clinton, who has spent the past week or so attempting to distance herself from the disaster of Barack Obama’s foreign policy. That’s a neat trick for someone who served as Secretary of State for four of the five-plus years of the Obama administration, and the White House and its supporters have already lashed out about it, if indirectly.

How is the project working? So far, conservatives aren’t buying the switch, CBS News concludes:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent critique of the Obama administration’s foreign policy, seemingly in preparation for a 2016 presidential run, has some pundits on the right crying foul.

By criticizing President Obama’s handling of foreign affairs, Clinton is attempting to distinguish Mr. Obama’s view of America’s role in the world from her own. Conservatives, however, are questioning how much Mr. Obama’s former top diplomat can truly distance herself from the administration. …

“If she wants to achieve separation, she will have to answer some tough questions in the period ahead, such as: how hard did she really fight for arming and training the Free Syrian Army?” [Washington Post columnist Marc] Thiessen wrote. “Did she threaten to resign? What specifically did she advocate doing to help the opposition? Did she advocate air strikes against ISIS? And – most importantly – did she oppose Obama’s complete withdrawal from Iraq, which also ‘left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled’?”

Jennifer Rubin, a conservative columnist for the Washington Post, called Clinton’s remarks “the worst sort of political opportunism for which she is infamous.”

“For a year and a half after leaving the administration, she has not spoken out against the president on Syria or much of anything else,” Rubin wrote. “She did not have the nerve to resign out of principle on Syria, as did former ambassador Robert Ford. Only now, when the entire region has gone to seed she decides the Obama critics were right on some key aspects of foreign policy.”

If Hillary isn’t convincing conservatives, she has to be impressing liberals, right? Not really, writes Katie Glueck at Politico:

Hillary Clinton is giving some liberals flashbacks to 2008, and not in a good way.

Progressives are wincing over Clinton’s foreign policy comments in a blockbuster interview with The Atlantic, saying her statements are excessively hawkish and reminiscent of her past support for the war in Iraq. Some foreign policy experts, meanwhile, are criticizing her views as too simplistic; one analyst called them downright disloyal to President Barack Obama.

In the interview with prominent foreign affairs writer Jeffrey Goldberg, Clinton called Obama’s decision not to back Syrian rebels early on a “failure;” stood staunchly with Israel in its fight against Hamas; took a tough tone on Iran; and said that the West Wing’s foreign policy mantra — “Don’t do stupid stuff”— is “not an organizing principle.”

Clinton has always been more of a hawk than Obama, whom she served under as secretary of state during his first term. But for many liberals, whose enthusiasm will be important if she runs again for president in 2016, her comments simply felt like code for Bush-era interventionism.

Ironically, in attempting to distance herself from Obama’s foreign policy, Hillary Clinton has just modeled it for us. Contrary to her implicit claim in her interview with The Atlantic, Hillary has no “organizing principle” for herself either except that which gets her elected. Both she and Obama are entirely reactive; they have no policy except that which derives the best short-term benefits. Obama’s foreign policy was popular during his first term even while setting the stage for the predictable disasters that would follow, so she was more than happy to be along for the ride.

Now that Obama’s foreign policy has produced disasters and crises, she’s suddenly venting her Inner Hawk and attempting to rewrite history — with a little help from her friends, Joe Concha argues:

[I]n a crystal ball moment on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Andrea Mitchell and Joe Scarborough sounded more like campaign operatives than objective analysts in an attempt to separate likely-candidate Clinton from Secretary of State Clinton.

“It’s almost like Hillary understands, like most foreign policy experts we have talked to over the past month understand, that ISIS is the beginning of a great unraveling of the Middle East,” Scarborough said.

“She understands it, she understood it then,” Mitchell agreed, adding later, “What Hillary Clinton is trying to do here is show the distinction,” Mitchell continued, “that she had the vision, if you will, to see that Syria was the heart of it.”

So the takeaway from this exchange is: A) The former Secretary of State understands what ISIS could do to destabilize the Middle East if it takes Baghdad and beyond (all despite a lack of evidence of said former Secretary of State attempting to do and say anything about ISIS while she had the power to do so); and B) She apparently had the vision to see the mess in Syria would spill over into vulnerable neighboring countries like Iraq, but not many speeches or interviews can be found indicating such. Except, of course, when she admitted this back in June:

““I never thought it (ISIS) was just a Syrian problem. I thought it was a regional problem. I could not have predicted, however, the extent to which ISIS could be effective in seizing cities in Iraq and trying to erase boundaries to create an Islamic state. That’s why it’s a wicked problem.”

Yup, she sure understood ISIS then, as Mitchell contended. And by the way, where was Mrs. Clinton’s leadership and initiative on this before throwing an unpopular president under the bus? Mr. Obama is the Commander-in-Chief and has the final say on these matters, yes. And to ask her to call out her boss in public isn’t rooted in reality, of course. But part of her job was to earn the respect and trust of the president she serves. If she felt we should have approached the Syrian conflict differently (via arming “moderate” rebels to squash radical armies like ISIS), then why wasn’t she able to make a more effective argument internally?

That’s the question Hillary has to answer. More importantly, she has to convince voters that she has her own “organizing principle,” or principles of any sort other than the need to live in the White House again. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton will have the astonishing accomplishment of making Barack Obama look deliberative and strategic in comparison.

Update: Here’s a good question for Clintonistas to answer, too:

Yes, this distancing seems both recent and very convenient, no?

Update: Trimmed down two of the excerpts.


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Axelrod hits back at Hillary: When we say “don’t do stupid stuff,” we mean stuff like occupying Iraq

AxelrodhitsbackatHillary:Whenwesay

Axelrod hits back at Hillary: When we say “don’t do stupid stuff,” we mean stuff like occupying Iraq

posted at 11:21 am on August 12, 2014 by Allahpundit

In case it wasn’t clear from Noah’s post how grumpy Obamaworld is these days about foreign-policy criticism, here’s a vivid intramural example. Remember this bit from Hillary’s interview with Jeffrey Goldberg?

JG: Is the lesson for you, like it is for President Obama, “Don’t do stupid shit”?

HRC: That’s a good lesson but it’s more complicated than that. Because your stupid may not be mine, and vice versa. I don’t think it was stupid for the United States to do everything we could to remove Qaddafi because that came from the bottom up. That was people asking us to help. It was stupid to do what we did in Iraq and to have no plan about what to do after we did it. That was really stupid. I don’t think you can quickly jump to conclusions about what falls into the stupid and non-stupid categories. That’s what I’m arguing…

JG: I think that defeating fascism and communism is a pretty big deal.

HRC: That’s how I feel! Maybe this is old-fashioned. Okay, I feel that this might be an old-fashioned idea—but I’m about to find out, in more ways than one.

Great nations need organizing principles, and “Don’t do stupid stuff” is not an organizing principle. It may be a necessary brake on the actions you might take in order to promote a vision.

Fast-forward a few days. This appeared at the top of Axelrod’s Twitter feed earlier this morning, conveniently shorn of any context for maximum deniability of who the target is:

I … did not expect to see big-name Democratic strategists needling the party’s next nominee over her biggest foreign policy liability in a public forum, but maybe Ax figures he has nothing to lose. He’s not going to have a role in a new Clinton administration; his crime against the throne in steering Obama to victory over her six years ago is too great to be forgiven. He’s better off protecting his and O’s legacy, he probably figures, by reminding a skeptical base that she voted for “Bush’s war” while Obama opposed it.

Just one really obvious problem with that logic, though. Jake Tapper, who normally stays out of political food fights on Twitter, couldn’t resist the obvious counterpoint:

O’s inner circle was and is a who’s who of believers in “stupid sh*t.” His first Secretary of State voted for war in Iraq, as did her successor (who was, by the way, the party’s nominee for president in 2004). So did his handpicked VP. Obama’s never been as remotely perturbed by support for the war as the passionate lefties to whom he pandered successfully in 2008. In fact, my pal Karl dug up this clip from his candidate days, in which Tim Russert grilled him on whether he might have voted for the war himself had he been in the Senate at the time. Does anyone seriously doubt that he would have? I know, I know — he gave a speech opposing the war in 2002, when he was a state senator. I’m willing to grant that that was his heartfelt position; what I’m asking is, would he have voted for the war anyway? Would he have given that speech if he was already a U.S. Senator eyeing a run for the presidency down the line? Electoral politics were surely a factor in Hillary’s, Kerry’s, and Biden’s votes for the war; they all ended up running for president later, which means they were probably already mulling it at the time of the vote. Go figure that they sided with the majority when support for the war was well over 60 percent. And of course, with gay marriage, we already have a famous example of Obama concealing his true position on a hot-button issue because he thought it was too risky in a general election. There’s no good reason to think he would have resisted doing “stupid sh*t” if he thought it would benefit him politically. When has he ever?


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Monday, August 11, 2014

Surprise: CIA begins quietly funneling weapons to Kurds to repel ISIS

Surprise:CIAbeginsquietlyfunnelingweaponstoKurds

Surprise: CIA begins quietly funneling weapons to Kurds to repel ISIS

posted at 1:21 pm on August 11, 2014 by Allahpundit

Just a “trickle” so far, per WaPo, because for the moment we’re still observing the polite fiction that there’s a functioning central government in Baghdad. If Maliki digs in and the new prime minister isn’t allowed to take power, I assume that fiction will finally be dropped.

The weapons are being supplied by the CIA, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because the Obama administration has not publicly acknowledged the spy agency’s involvement.

“They need everything, especially heavy weapons,” said the former U.S. official, who is working closely with Kurdish leaders. While arms have started flowing to Kurdish forces near the city of Irbil, the official said Kurds in the vicinity of the key city of Sulaymaniyah have yet to receive any U.S. support…

A U.S. military official said the Pentagon and State Department were discussing other possible ways to deliver weapons to the Kurds via open channels, but that they would need special legal authorization. Normally U.S. arms sales are restricted to sovereign or central governments.

Legal authorization shouldn’t be hard. There are no heavyweight factions in either party who are anti-Kurd or (giggle) pro-Maliki at this point, are there?

Speaking of quietly arming jihadi nemeses, here’s a tasty leftover from the weekend. I know Noah touched on it earlier but I want to highlight this bit:

JG: Do you think we’d be where we are with ISIS right now if the U.S. had done more three years ago to build up a moderate Syrian opposition?

[Hillary Clinton]: Well, I don’t know the answer to that. I know that the failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad—there were Islamists, there were secularists, there was everything in the middle—the failure to do that left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled.

They were often armed in an indiscriminate way by other forces and we had no skin in the game that really enabled us to prevent this indiscriminate arming.

I don’t know how seriously to take that. Maybe it’s simple political math. She needs to distance herself from Obama’s foreign policy + she wants to polish her brand as a hawk = in hindsight, we should have done more to arm the “moderates” in the Free Syrian Army, who might have quashed the nascent threat from ISIS on the battlefield in Syria before it could spread to Iraq. Assuming she means it, though, I don’t know why she thinks an FSA backed by American arms would have been appreciably better at filling the vacuum in Syria than ISIS was. It’s easy to say in hindsight “we should have hit ISIS harder before they had time to establish themselves”; in reality, had Obama made that case at the time, he would have been scoffed at by war-weary lefties and righties. And with good reason: There’s simply never been compelling evidence, the way there is with an America-friendly battle-tested force like the peshmerga in Kurdistan, that an FSA armed by Uncle Sam would have been equal to the task of stopping the jihadis, let alone Assad. Michael Dougherty:

The U.S. was arming Syrian rebels. This was reported throughout 2012 and 2013. Sometimes the reports even made the effort to describe those America was arming as “moderate,” to try to distinguish them from the black-flag flying beheaders. But the distinctions can be blurry. Some of the “moderate” Free Syrian Army members have been defecting to Islamist groups like al Nusra, and presumably ISIS — at least those members who haven’t given up and retired to Turkey.

Relatively early in the Syrian conflict, back when the U.S. was still waiting for the discouraging messages from the British parliament and a discouraging op-ed from Vladimir Putin, ISIS and other Islamist groups were growing at the expense of our beloved “moderate” gun-wielders. This dynamic wasn’t hard to predict, as the opposition to Assad was concentrated in Sunni Muslim groups who detested the Alawite dictator. Money and materiel flows up from Gulf states to radical Sunnis.

Committing to the “moderate” Free Syrian Army exclusively would have meant creating a civil war within a civil war, getting into a proxy war with Saudi Arabia, and risking humiliation — all while getting a lot of innocents killed. If the stated objective was that once the U.S. went in big with anti-Assad forces, then Assad’s fall had to be assured, the result would have been similar to Egypt, where once the U.S. let Mubarak’s regime fall, the Muslim Brotherhood was the only organized option on the ground.

We armed the Iraqi army to the teeth, notes Dougherty, and those arms are now being used against the Kurds by ISIS forces who confiscated them from Iraqi troops. What reason is there to think the same wouldn’t have happened in Syria? If anything, arming the FSA might have accelerated ISIS’s takeover in Iraq by opening a new stream of weapons to the group. But I think we’re overthinking this. As I say, Hillary’s hawkishness here is foremost a political gesture, aimed partly at voters who think a woman wouldn’t be “tough” enough as commander-in-chief, partly at voters who worry that electing Obama’s top diplomat as president means four years of Hopenchange foreign policy, and partly at ardent Republican hawks who will be looking to bail on the party if Rand Paul ends up being the GOP’s choice. But I also think she would be more hawkish as president than O is, which means more early-stage interventions in places like Syria (and Ukraine?). Depending upon who we nominate, we could end up with a Republican who feels similarly, who’s considerably more dovish (Paul), or who’s probably even a bit more hawkish (Rubio). Foreign policy typically doesn’t influence presidential votes heavily, but this time it should.


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Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Why can’t Rand Paul get his dad to stop sabotaging him?

Whycan’tRandPaulgethisdadto

Why can’t Rand Paul get his dad to stop sabotaging him?

posted at 2:41 pm on August 5, 2014 by Noah Rothman

I generally think Rand Paul is a positive influence on the Republican Party. From drug policy, to sentencing reform, to same-sex marriage; Paul’s libertarian views inform his hands-off position on a number of contentious social issues. Or, in his words, “I think Republicans could only win in general if they become more live and let live — ‘leave me alone.’”

For a generation of young people who consider themselves fiscally conservative but socially liberal, Paul’s prominence robs center-left youth of the ability to dismiss the GOP outright as either bigoted or theocratic. Paul forces the young voters to internalize and counter conservative and libertarian arguments on social policy – a development Democratic strategists are not happy about.

The Kentucky Senator is also an important thorn in the “Republican establishment’s” side. Paul recently endorsed Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) for reelection over his Chamber of Commerce-backed primary opponent. Amash, another outspoken libertarian politician who often adopts positions matters foreign and domestic contrary to Republican orthodoxy, is another benefit to the party. You don’t have to agree with either of these GOP politicians to appreciate that internal dissent and debate makes for a vibrant and healthy political movement.

But that equation changes when one of these divergent libertarian voices seeks to become the leader of his party and the President of the United States. Paul, like his father before him, clearly has designs on the White House, and he has been calibrating his position on a variety of issues in order to appeal to a broader universe of Republican primary voters.

For example, since the start of the most recent conflict in Gaza, Paul has been actively attempting to get on the right side of the majority of GOP primary voters by expressing his support for Israel insofar as that support comports with his support for American retrenchment. Writing in National Review recently, Paul insisted that the appropriate American response to the conflict was to cut off U.S. foreign aid to the Palestinian Authority.

But Hamas, not the Palestinian Authority, is responsible for the latest round of violence. The P.A. has been a relatively responsible actor in this conflict. Furthermore, this was not Paul’s first attempt to seek the end of foreign aid to the P.A… or, for that matter, Israel. Or the rest of the world. In fact, Paul has long advocated for the cessation of all foreign aid and assistance – a miniscule fraction of the federal budget. The senator’s about face on this issue is nakedly, transparently political. For a politician with aspirations for higher office, there is nothing remarkable about this.

However, it is clear that Paul’s natural instincts on foreign affairs are closer to those of his father, even if he is savvier at articulating his preferred policy solutions. Former Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), however, is as outspoken as ever and continues to display none of his son’s savoir-faire. The former Texas congressman’s views on foreign affairs are well outside the Republican mainstream, conspiratorial, and extraordinarily damaging to his son’s presidential ambitions.

Take, for example, Ron Paul’s most recent tinfoil hat theorizing (and by “most recent,” I mean yesterday). In this clip, the good doctor asks “Why won’t Obama just leave Ukraine alone?” He proceeds to embrace virtually every conspiratorial notion the Kremlin has advanced in order to absolve themselves of the blame they deserve for arming and assisting pro-Russian rebels who shot down Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 on July 17.

Along with claiming that the global intelligence agencies which blamed Russia for providing Russian separatist with the SA-11 anti-air missile that took down MH17 had not been “proven,” he proceeded to suggest that the American accusation that Russia was guilty of “creating the conditions” which led to violence in eastern Ukraine is problematic.

“That is a dangerous measure of culpability, considering U.S. support for separatist groups in Syria and elsewhere,” Paul said.

This is a gross conflation of terms. The Kremlin seeks to create the equivalence between America’s support for moderate anti-Assad resistance fighters (who do not seek separatism, but seek merely to overthrow a genocidal dictator who happens to enjoy Moscow’s backing) and their support for separatist rebels in Ukraine. Paul is buying directly into Russian propaganda, and his son will have to answer for it on the campaign trail.

Again, this is merely the latest in a string of episodes in which the elder Paul has kneecapped his son by repeating dangerous anti-Western propaganda disseminated by the enemies of the United States. Republican primary voters will not stand for that, and Paul may be faced with the tormenting prospect of having to denounce his own father. Neither Paul could wish for that outcome, so why can’t Rand convince his father to keep his thoughts on international affairs to himself?


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