Russia:Wewon’tinterveneinUkraine posted

Russia: We won’t intervene in Ukraine

posted at 9:21 am on February 25, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

That’s the good news. The (potential) bad news? They want a return to the status quo ante, at least in part, before holding any more elections — and they want the West to stay out of Ukraine in any sense:

 Moscow pledged Tuesday it would not intervene in the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine but said the country should not be forced to choose between Russia and the West.

“We confirmed our principled position of non-intervention in Ukraine’s internal affairs and expect that everyone follows similar logic,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

“We are interested in Ukraine being part of the European family, in all senses of the word,” he said after talks with Luxembourg counterpart Jean Asselborn.

But he added: “We agree that… it is dangerous and counterproductive to force Ukraine into a choice — either you are with us or against us.”

That is a bit of a false choice anyway. There are very few voices calling for an all-or-nothing orientation toward the West, even in western Ukraine. The foreign minister of France, Laurent Fabius, denied that the EU was asking for any such arrangement.  On the other hand, Viktor Yanukovich stiffed the EU in favor of an economic bias almost totally in favor of Moscow despite deep unpopularity with such reliance on their former Soviet masters in much of the country.

Perhaps this, then, is a fallback position for Moscow, and a realization that Yanukovich isn’t likely to be welcomed back to power in Ukraine. The relatively strong response from the West — including the rapid deployment of a high-ranking State Department official to Kyiv — must have caught Moscow off-guard. The statement from Lavrov notably omits any reference to the deposed president, and instead demands a return to order from the new authorities, after watching the statue of a Russian Empire field marshal  get knocked down like those of Lenin:

The foreign ministry also Tuesday lashed out at the toppling of a statue of Russian field marshal Mikhail Kutuzov in the western city of Lviv, calling it a “barbaric and Russophobic action.”

“We demand that the new Ukrainian authorities stop this lawlessness,” it said.

Who are the new Ukrainian authorities? Right now, it’s still not clear. The Ukrainian parliament delayed the formation of a new government for another couple of days, despite the EU’s insistence on having a government in place before assistance on debt can be transmitted:

Ukraine’s interim authorities balked at forming a new government Tuesday as horse-trading among parties in parliament continued, despite pleas from the European Union to quickly pave the way for an emergency aid package.

Activists on the Maidan, the protest epicenter formally known as Independence Square, expressed dissatisfaction with the roster of familiar faces that the parliament has been considering for top posts following the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych over the weekend.

“We need totally new people,” said Yaroslav Kazmyrchuk, 70, who described himself as a pensioner and a revolutionary. He said the protest on the Maidan — where a large crowd gathered Tuesday morning — would continue until it was clear that all the “bandits” would be removed from power. …

A Maidan council has been established by a group of prominent activists to consult on ministerial choices. According to a statement it posted, “We will check each candidate to be proposed by the new parliamentary majority” to be sure that no one who is rich, or who worked for Yanukovych, or was involved in human rights abuses, is selected.

“Each member of the new government must secure the Maidan’s approval,” the statement said.

That may be a noble concept, but it also may end up paralyzing the parliament on putting Ukraine back on its feet. All sides will have to find ways to compromise enough to make government work, or the state could collapse. At that point, Russia may have its pretext to intervene, at least to secure the Crimean peninsula and its primarily ethnic-Russian population. Reform can’t happen overnight, and the Maidan has a narrow window in which to demonstrate that it can govern as well as lead.

Tags: euromaidan, European Union, Russia, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich

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Video:Ukrainesignspacttoreformgov’t,Russia

Video: Ukraine signs pact to reform gov’t, Russia snubs ceremony; Update: Vote to free Tymoshenko?

posted at 12:41 pm on February 21, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The question will be whether the Euromaidan protesters will accept it … and whether Vladimir Putin will tolerate it. This ABC News report suggests both questions are hanging over Ukraine:

ABC Entertainment News|ABC Business News

It remains to be seen whether the pact will defuse violence in the capital of Kiev where protesters have battled security forces, leaving about 100 people dead. One of their main demands was Yanukovich’s resignation. The terms of the deal, as reported by a Ukrainian newspaper, were quickly and loudly rejected by the masses occupying Kiev’s Independence Square. A radical wing of the opposition, the Right Sector, which sparked Thursday’s violence by attacking police, said they did not trust Yanukovich and planned to continue the fight until the government steps down, according to Interfax.

The deal, as announced on Yanukovich’s website, would “initiate” early elections, return to the 2004 version of Ukraine’s constitution, and form a government of “national trust.” The announcement did not say when elections would be, but sources told Ukrainska Pravda newspaper the deal would revert to the 2004 constitution within 48 hours, form a coalition government within 10 days, and hold elections in December, just a couple months before they were originally scheduled. Interfax reports that under the agreement, some of Yanukovich’s authority would be curbed and the current interior minister and prosecutor general would not be allowed to take part in a new government.

What was the Russian reaction? Er …

The arrangement appears to have been a disappointment for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has backed Yanukovich and opposed Ukraine’s embrace of Europe. The Kremlin’s appointed mediator, Human Rights Commissioner Vladimir Lukin, reportedly planned to return to Moscow. According to Russia’s Interfax news agency, Lukin declined to sign on to a peace deal.

The Euromaidan protesters aren’t happy with the deal, either. The chant of “No deal!” went up from Independence Square even as the Ukrainian parliament voted to reinstate the 2004 constitution that limits President Viktor Yanukovich’s powers, a constitution which Yanukovich superseded with a 2010 replacement making the presidency the center of Ukrainian power. Failing Yanukovich’s immediate ouster, Euromaidan protesters want him prosecuted:

The chant of “death to the criminal” — a reference to two later-pardoned convictions for petty crime Yanukovych received in the Soviet era — rose over Kiev’s iconic Independence Square overnight Thursday.

“I think that Yanukovych must leave now, and never come back,” said a middle-aged protester named Lyudmila.

“We do not need any elections. He should not be allowed to run.”

The massacre yesterday may make it difficult to convince the demonstrators that anything will change while Yanukovich holds office in any form, and may still put the kibosh on this agreement. And Russia’s pointed snub may mean that Vladimir Putin has a far different idea of how to resolve this crisis than any of the negotiators involved, too. If Yanukovich remains president and suddenly declares a crisis and Russian assistance, Putin wouldn’t need much more convincing to intervene on behalf of his client. If Yanukovich sees this ending with him in the dock for murder charges, he’s going to make that cry for help — and if the new coalition offers him amnesty, expect the streets to erupt again.

This isn’t over. It may be just beginning.

Update: Speaking of beginnings, the newly-empowered parliament voted to remove criminal penalties for the law that allowed Yanukovich to imprison his chief political opponent, Yulia Tymoshenko. Yanukovich still has to sign it for Tymoshenko to be freed, so this will be an interesting early test of reform.

Tags: euromaidan, protests, Russia, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, Vladimir Putin

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Video:DealreachedinUkraine;Update:Protesters

Video: Deal reached in Ukraine; Update: Protesters agree?

posted at 8:01 am on February 21, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Under pressure from all sides, and with Moscow signaling that it wants a low-key approach to the rebellion in Kiev, the government in Ukraine has cut a deal to end the standoff in the streets. President Viktor Yanukovich has agreed to early elections in December, and more critically a return to the constitution that was superseded in 2004, which will make the presidency a weaker office. Power would shift to a coalition government, to which all three major parties in Ukraine have agreed.

But will that be enough? CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh wonders whether the Euromaidan protesters will be satisfied with a deal that leaves Yanukovich in power at all:

The Washington Post’s Will Englund thinks it will take guarantees that Yanukovich has been bypassed in order to sell the deal in the streets of Kiev:

The protesters want Yanukovych out of office immediately and have sworn they will not leave the Maidan, the protest epicenter also known as Independence Square, until he leaves the presidency.

Opposition political leaders also would have to be assured that a coalition government — that is, the prime minister and cabinet — would have real authority and not simply be window dressing for Yanukovych.

Yanukovich won’t have much choice in the matter. The parliament, nominally controlled by his party, demanded a withdrawal of police from Independence Square the day after clashes in the streets left dozens dead, some from Berkut snipers captured by videographers. That was followed by the entry of police officers from the western-Ukraine city of Lviv into Independence Square — to side with the protesters:

Just 24 hours earlier, as she had said on Thursday, it was “absolute chaos” in the city’s Independence Square. Clashes between security forces and protesters left dozens of people dead. More than 70 have been killed since violence erupted on Tuesday.

But by midday Friday in Kiev, as Soraya reported on Morning Edition, much of the “debris and chaos had been swept up and swept away.” One dramatic moment: the arrival of police officers from the city of Lviv. They announced they were were to support the protesters, Soraya says.

The scene is “180 degrees different,” Soraya added.

Yanukovich is seeing his political support crumble underneath him. Englund further notes for the Post that a new envoy from Moscow may have made the difference between defiance and deference to popular will:

A key player in the talks could turn out to be Vladimir Lukin, dispatched from Moscow Thursday by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Until now, Russia’s lobbying of Ukraine has been so aggressive that Europeans have characterized it as bullying. But Lukin is a respected low-key figure, and his appointment seemed to signal a change in the Kremlin’s tone.

Putin has tried to bind Ukraine and Yanukovych to Russia with economic ties and stymie closer relations between Kiev and the European Union. But Russian analysts said Thursday that the Ukrainian president has shown he cannot defeat the opposition and that the past two days of street fighting, coupled with defiance throughout western Ukraine, have exposed his weakness. If that thinking now extends to the Kremlin, Putin might try to cut the best deal he can.

Any new government in Ukraine will still have to maintain a working relationship with Moscow. The cultural, political, and economic ties are too strong for a complete break, and no democratic government in Kiev could sustain that kind of rupture for long. Putin may have had his knuckles rapped by Ukrainians in this case, but he can still cut deals — as long as he doesn’t give the appearance of propping up a dictator, especially if that means sending troops and tanks over the border as Putin did in Georgia in 2008. The arrival of Lukin may have included a message that no such help would be forthcoming, and that Yanukovich needed to cut a deal soon.

We’ll see if it holds, but if it does, Ukraine may have made a big step out of the Cold War shadows.

Update: German negotiators say the Euromaidan protesters have agreed to the deal:

BREAKING: German Foreign Ministry: Ukrainian protesters agree to president's proposal on defusing crisis.

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 21, 2014

We’ll see how soon they begin leaving Independence Square, though. They may wait for the coalition government to form and take power first.

Tags: euromaidan, protests, Russia, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, Vladimir Putin

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UStoUkraine:Getsecurityforcesoutof

US to Ukraine: Get security forces out of Independence Square

posted at 12:41 pm on February 20, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The deployment and use of Berkut snipers to attack protesters in Kiev got a much swifter reaction from the White House than any other Ukraine development thus far. Jay Carney expressed outrage on behalf of the US over the use of deadly force on demonstrators, and demanded a withdrawal of security forces from the conflict:

The White House on Thursday called for Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to remove his security forces from the scene of protests in Kiev — its most forceful statement to date on the quickly escalating conflict. …

White House press secretary Jay Carney said Yanukovych’s forces have gone too far.

“We are outraged by the images of Ukrainian security forces firing automatic weapons on their own people,” Carney said. “We urge President Yanukovych to immediately withdraw his security forces from downtown Kyiv and to respect the right of peaceful protest, and we urge protesters to express themselves peacefully.”

The death toll has risen to at least 50 today alone, after the supposed truce collapsed almost as soon as it was announced. The problem for Viktor Yanukovich might be that recalling his troops will be more difficult than it looks. Dozens have been captured by the demonstrators and are apparently being held as hostages now, while the question of who’s sniping whom may be more complicated, too:

The Interior Ministry said 67 of its troops were captured by demonstrators. The captives were taken to a government building occupied by the opposition, news agencies reported. On a hill south of Independence Square, the protest movement’s epicenter also known as the Maidan, the parliament and cabinet buildings were evacuated.

Although the fighting Thursday morning fell short of developing into a full-scale battle, videos indicated that some protesters have sniper rifles, and police were shown shooting automatic weapons.

The Interior Ministry announced that it was issuing military-grade weapons to the police, while saying they were to be used only in accordance with the law.

Will the Yanukovich government pull its security forces out of the center of its capital? That seems unlikely, to say the least. According to early reports, the police did start to pull back after the truce went into effect, but got charged and fought back. If that’s what happened — and it’s too confusing to know for sure — they won’t try that again without a force behind them to cover their retreat, and that is probably not what Jay Carney had in mind anyway.

Besides, an ultimatum from the US is probably among the least-relevant issues in Kiev at the moment. Last night, Hugh Hewitt discussed the Obama “line” with CNN’s Jake Tapper, who couldn’t believe that the White House would use that kind of terminology after the Syria collapse:

HH: Now Jake Tapper, if people step over the line, I’m almost amazed that he used that language given the red line fiasco in Syria.

JT: Yeah.

HH: And the poker tell, I want to be very clear. I’m sure he said almost exactly that during the Syrian crisis. Does he think we have amnesia?

JT: And we pointed this out in our show today, the use of the term the line, and in fact, I asked Haas if you’re Yanukovych, and you’re sitting there and you hear President Obama talk about that line, how resonant is that? How much does the red line of Bashar al-Assad, the threat that if Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own people, that would be crossing a red line for the President. How much does that mean? He said it was a fair question. Obviously, you don’t know. The other thing that was interesting was that Haas said that he thought the U.S. options, there were far fewer options in Ukraine than in Syria, and one of the reasons I imagine would be because of Putin and his alliance with Yanukovych. And you don’t want this to be a, it already is a proxy conflict. You don’t want it to be a proxy war. So the options are quite limited, Haas said. But I agree, I was surprised by the use of the term line, and also, I thought what was interesting, what consequences are there? What will they be? Secretary of State John Kerry today raised the specter of sanctions, as did the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine last night. But it’s not clear exactly what the full tool kit as deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes referred to today, what’s in that tool kit, what can the U.S. do. It will be interesting to see what happens when the foreign ministers from Europe come to Kiev and talk to Yanukovych and the other foreign minister there.

HH: It’s almost as though someone said to him right before he went out, whatever you do, don’t use the word lines. And he couldn’t help himself, because it’s, it’s like a heat-seeking missile following the story lede, is Obama threatens another red line. He didn’t use red, obviously, but is he that unaware of the consequences not of the Ukranian knockdown but of his Syrian collapse?

JT: Well, I think, look, I mean, you’re asking me to get into the President’s brain and I can’t do that. But I can say a couple things. One is I think one of the things that the President knows is that there is a tremendous reluctance for the U.S., among the American people, for the U.S. to get involved in another military conflict right now, that that’s something that the nation is war weary. And so I believe that the President and the White House feel that actions that end up not leading to war, whether it’s seen as weakness by some or not, whether it’s seen as backing away from a red line or not, ultimately, that the President will enjoy support for not taking the country to war. I think that that’s one calculation that they make.

HH: But you know what’s interesting, Jake…

JT: And I don’t know that it’s wrong. It might be cynical, but I don’t know that it’s wrong.

Yanukovich has more to worry about in Brussels, where the EU is considering the application of sanctions on his regime:

As new violent clashes erupted in Kiev, the EU is threatening targeted sanctions against Ukranian officials they hold responsible for the violence that has killed at least 28 people and injured more than 200.

EU Foreign Ministers held Thursday in Brussels an extraordinary meeting on the situation in Ukraine while in Washington, the US announced that it had imposed visa travel bans on around 20 senior members of the Ukrainian government as a first step towards a broader package of sanctions.

According to official sources, EU sanctions being considered include further visa restrictions on senior Ukrainian officials close to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich who are thought to be responsible for the violence, as well as the possible freezing of assets.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said EU member states have a broad consensus for a possible decision on the introduction of targeted sanctions against certain officials in Ukraine. He said:”We cannot forget the images of the last few days and the tragic deaths and injuries of so many people. This is why the Foreign Affairs Council will meet today to discuss the adoption of targeted measures against those responsible for violence and use of excessive force… I am happy to see that there is now a broad consensus among our member states in the way to deal with this issue.”

The US is a superpower, but Ukraine has to engage with the EU economically in order to survive. Yanukovich can’t afford to have all ties cut with the West, not politically or fiscally. That’s a much bigger deal to Ukraine than an unrealistic demand to surrender the center of the capital or even the protest of of its Olympic athletes today.

Tags: Barack Obama, euromaidan, European Union, Jay Carney, red line, sanctions, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, White House

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TrucecollapsesinKiev,atleast25more

Truce collapses in Kiev, at least 25 more dead

posted at 8:41 am on February 20, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Ukraine’s government and its opposition announced a truce last night, but it didn’t last long. Police had kept the Euromaidan protests locked up in Independence Square, but when they pulled back, protesters charged — and expanded their grip on the streets. Richard Engel gives NBC’s Today this update on the armed conflict that is now spreading through the capital:

A fragile truce between pro-West demonstrators and Ukraine’s security forces was shattered early Thursday as battles erupted on the streets of Kiev, leaving at least 10 people dead.

Facing sanctions from the United States and the European Union, President Viktor Yanukovych reached a truce with opposition leaders on Wednesday night after two days of violence that saw at least 28 people killed.

But the pact was short lived. Independence Square –- where the protest movement has camped out since November –- descended into urban warfare by 10 a.m. local time (3 a.m. ET). Authorities confirmed seven civilian deaths and said three police officers had also been killed.

The number of those killed keeps going up; current estimates at the time this posted are between 25 and 50. Engel included a little bit of this video in the report, but the entirety of it shows pretty clearly that snipers are being used in Kiev against protesters:

The Ukraine Pravda has photos and video of Berkut (riot police or special forces) snipers in action:

The US imposed sanctions on twenty Ukrainian government officials, the first action from the Obama administration to the conflict:

Espreso TV in Ukraine has live video now of Independence Square, although it cuts in and out. NBC has a non-embeddable version at this link. At the moment, it looks quiet, but some of the action is now taking place in the streets around the square.

Tags: euromaidan, sanctions, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich

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Livevideo:Deathtollhits25inKiev

Live video: Death toll hits 25 in Kiev as standoff continues

posted at 8:01 am on February 19, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The violence continued overnight in Kiev, as the Euromaidan protesters held their ground against riot police called in by the government to stop the demonstrations. As of now, a demarcation between the two sides has been re-established as foreign governments urge both sides to return to negotiations. However, the rhetoric has not changed, and Kiev remains on the knife’s edge:

The death toll hit 25 overnight, with 241 injured as a cathedral in Kiev got converted to a hospital. Police started pushing into the square early in the morning, but from the live video below, it appears they have stopped — for now. The EU called an emergency meeting of all 28 foreign ministers, and they may be gathering to demand that Viktor Yanukovych be held personally responsible for the violence:

Deadly clashes between protesters and police in Kiev on Tuesday led to a fire-lit nighttime assault by Interior Ministry troops on the main protest encampment at Independence Square, in what may be a dramatic and irreversible turn in Ukraine’s months-long political crisis.

The 28-nation European Union on Wednesday called a meeting of foreign ministers to decide on its response, including possible sanctions, the Associated Press reported. Sanctions could include travel bans targeting the Ukrainian leadership and asset freezes.

E.U. foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s office said the special meeting of foreign ministers would weigh the bloc’s options Thursday in Brussels, according to the AP. …

Police began to push toward the camp early Wednesday. But whether or not they clear the square, Ukraine is heading for an even deeper divide. The hostility that the opposition feels toward Yanukovych is intense and widespread, especially in the western part of the country.

Having turned to Russia for much-needed financial help, Yanukovych may finally have burned his bridges to the West with Tuesday’s developments, leaving him in danger of being a weakened and unpopular supplicant to Moscow.

That will make it more difficult for Yanukovich to reverse his unpopular decision to align himself with Moscow, if that was even a possibility at this late date. Vice President Joe Biden called Yanukovich yesterday to urge him to pull the police back, but that seems to have had little effect. Yanukovich refused further negotiations until the protests disband, while one opposition lawmaker accused the Ukrainian president of having deliberately provoked the confrontation in order to use deadly force against his opponents:

Lesya Orobets, an opposition member of parliament, said the protesters fell into a trap laid for them by Yanukovych. She said he had knowingly provoked the hard-line members of a right-wing group called Pravy Sektor, who have formed the most aggressive element of the opposition and who led the fighting when it erupted.

“This massacre has been carefully planned in advance and is intended to eventually destroy any hint of democracy in Ukraine,” she wrote on Facebook.

The Espreso TV live channel we used yesterday has gone off line today, at least at the moment, but I have it embedded anyway in case it comes back on line. The Washington Post has a live video stream still functioning, where the smoke from burning tires and occasional explosions can be heard:

Tags: euromaidan, Kiev, protests, Russia, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich

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Livevideo:NinedeadinKievasriots

Live video: Nine dead in Kiev as riots erupt in Ukraine

posted at 2:01 pm on February 18, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Ukraine erupted in violence today as the Euromaidan protests turned deadly. Nine people were killed as demonstrators attack the ruling party’s headquarters. Dozens more were injured in the violence:

At least nine people died Tuesday in protests in Kiev, seven of them civilians and two police, authorities said.

The casualties occurred after protesters set fire to the headquarters of the ruling Party of Regions and as violence roiled the capital for the first time in more than two weeks.

The opposition confirmed five of the deaths — three near parliament and two near a metro station; the Interior Ministry said a policeman died in an ambulance en route to a hospital.

Earlier, an opposition member of Ukraine’s parliament told CNN that three protesters had died and seven others were seriously injured during protests Tuesday in Kiev.

Speaking from the protesters’ medical facility outside the parliament building, Olesya Orobets said ambulances had been barred from the area.

Live video is streaming here:

Police moved in on protest positions as night fell, in what they called an anti-terrorism operation:

Ukrainian police are storming the main anti-government protest camp in the capital, Kiev.

Loud explosions are taking place, fireworks are being thrown and water cannon have been deployed.

During the day, at least nine people were killed, including two policemen, as protesters and security forces clashed in the worst violence in weeks.

Protesters are refusing to leave Independence Square, saying that “Ukraine is behind us … Ukraine’s future is behind us.” The armed conflict could spread to other cities, as the opposition has seized government buildings elsewhere. For the moment, though, it appears the violence is contained to Kiev.

Update: This YouTube video uploaded today depicts Ukrainian protesters singing the national anthem while riot police throw fire bombs in Kiev, according to Maxim Eristavi, a broadcaster in Kiev:

While Independence square is burning and stun grenades are exploding, protesters are signing national anthem. It's like a doomsday

— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi) February 18, 2014

President Yanukovych is ignoring phone calls from foreign diplomats, diplomatic sources told @EspresoTV #Euromaidan

— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi) February 18, 2014

 

Tags: euromaidan, protests, riots, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich

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Ukrainepresident“callsinsick”asoppositionremains

Ukraine president “calls in sick” as opposition remains defiant

posted at 6:51 pm on January 30, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Back in the days of the Soviet Union, a mere cold usually meant a fatal illness when leaders suddenly dropped out of sight. Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovich certainly picked an odd time to call in sick, as opposition protests mount and activists refuse to accept half-measures meant to allow him a share in the country’s leadership:

Ukraine’s embattled president Viktor Yanukovych decided to go on sick leave Thursday as the country’s political crisis continued without signs of resolution.

A statement on the presidential website Thursday said Yanukovych was on sick leave due to an acute respiratory illness and high fever. There was no indication of how long he might be on leave or whether he would be able to do any work.

Yanukovych is under pressure after two months of major protests seeking his resignation, early elections and other demands.

In one of a series of moves aimed at resolving the crisis, Ukraine’s parliament on Wednesday passed a measure offering amnesty to those arrested during the protests, but only if demonstrators vacate most of the buildings they occupy.

The move was quickly greeted with contempt by the opposition, as were the previous efforts to calm the unrest.

Essentially, the offer from the parliament — still controlled by Yanukovich’s party — was “trust us.” The time for those kinds of back-down-now-and-we’ll-think-about-changes offers appears past. Having gained the leverage of holding ground, especially after their previous experience with Ukrainian security forces, there won’t be any way to coax them into ceding that ground without rock-solid assurances that they have changed the political situation for good. The only way to ensure that now is to see Yanukovich resign.

That brings us to the curious case of the sick leave. Certainly people get sick occasionally, and people under pressure are more likely to get ill. The government insists that’s the case here:

“Today is the first day of the illness. He has a high temperature. We are not doctors, but it is clear that a high temperature does not go down in a single day,” a presidential spokesman said by telephone. “The doctors will do all they can so that he can recover quickly.”

Some opposition figures said they suspected Yanukovich might be giving himself a breathing space after being forced into concessions to try to calm the unrest on the streets.

“This smacks of a ‘diplomatic illness’,” Rostislav Pavlenko, a member of boxer-turned-politician Vitaly Klitschko’s Udar (Punch) party, told Reuters. “It allows Yanukovich not to sign laws, not to meet the opposition, absent himself from decisions to solve the political crisis.”

Pointedly, Yanukovich still has not signed the legislation that repealed the ban on public protests, a law passed this month which threw a deluge of gasoline on an already-raging political fire. Being absent means not having to do one’s homework, the opposition alleges, including allowing for the police to operate under the old law.

However, the declared “sick leave” comes at the worst possible time for Yanukovich and his supporters, especially with the Soviet precedents fresher in their minds than in Western minds. Even if he is that sick, it’s going to sound like Yanukovich is wobbly, which will only raise morale amongst protesters and have Yanukovich supporters looking for ways out of the crisis that don’t include being up against the wall. Under these conditions, even the appearance of a vacuum of leadership at the top can be fatal — literally and figuratively — and the benefit of delaying signatures on concessions already offered and accepted is weak at best. Yanukovich had better get well in a hurry if he expects to survive this crisis.

Update: By the way, the split in Ukraine is not as simple as just a geographic split, either, although it’s tempting to just stick to an “East=Russophile, West=Europhile” look at Ukraine. It’s a complex divide that has echoes in history, culture, ideology, and so on. As the BBC noted earlier this week, there is unrest in the East, too:

This cold, grey place is in Ukraine’s industrial heartland: it is a city of giant enterprises, heavy industry and blue collar workers. Like many regions in eastern Ukraine, Zaporizhya is traditionally loyal to President Yanukovych, who is from the east himself. That makes what happened here at the weekend so unusual.

On Sunday, thousands of protesters gathered outside the regional administration building to demand political change. They condemned the president and called on the local governor, appointed by the president, to resign.

The defiant governor, Alexander Peklushenko, emerged to announce that only “cowards and traitors” resign. He vowed to retain his Party of Regions membership card “until the day I die”. Then he disappeared back inside.

The angry crowd tried to push past the lines of riot police and into the building. The police fired tear gas and stun grenades. …

It appears that Viktor Yanukovych still enjoys support in eastern Ukraine and there are some here who believe he should rule out concessions to his opponents. But the fact that unrest has spread here, and to nearby cities like Dnipropetrovsk, which are normally viewed as a central part of his powerbase, will be of major concern to the embattled president.

The flashpoint in this unrest was definitely the reversal on the trade agreement with the EU, but that’s not all that’s going on in Ukraine, either. For instance, corruption plays a part in the outrage over the current government, or at least the perception of corruption:

Further along Khreshchatyk Street, another protester, Genadi Chemov, is standing between a high-end hotel – still open for business – and a ten-foot barricade made of snow, ice, and other debris chiseled off Kiev’s brick streets. Mr. Chemov, like Moroz, was unimpressed by Tuesday’s special parliamentary session.

Chemov, a Kiev resident, says he is fed up with the endemic government corruption and usually comes to the protests once a day and sometimes stays for up to six hours before going home.

As he warms his hands by a wood fire, Chemov explains that Mr. Azarov’s resignation is just symbolic. “It’s the president who needs to be held accountable.” Until Yanukovych leaves power, there’s no way that the Euromaidan protests will go home, he says.

Be wary of single-issue analyses on this topic. In a functional republic, a trade agreement decision would hardly be the flashpoint of a potential civil war. The political fragility here goes back years, if not decades.

Tags: euromaidan, European Union, Russia, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich

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Ukrainegovernmentresigns,protestbansrepealed posted

Ukraine government resigns, protest bans repealed

posted at 2:01 pm on January 28, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The government of Ukraine took a big step backward today — and then fled the field — in the face of growing unrest in Kiev and across the country. The parliament controlled by President Viktor Yanukovich repealed the law that banned political demonstrations on public land, which Yanukovich had hoped to use to bully his opposition into silence. His Prime Minister and entire Cabinet then tendered their resignations:

There were growing signs Tuesday that Ukraine’s opposition movement was gaining ground in its efforts to remake the country, with the resignation of the prime minister, approval of an amnesty bill for protesters and the repeal of harsh new laws restricting freedom of speech and assembly.

Ukraine’s parliament, called the Verkhovna Rada, invalidated the anti-demonstration laws hours after Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned. Passage of the laws Jan. 16 had triggered violent protests in the capital city, Kiev, following weeks of demonstrations against government corruption and the closer ties to Russia favored by President Viktor Yanukovych.

The parliament also passed an amnesty bill Tuesday that would drop criminal liability for protesters who agree to leave the government buildings they have occupied during the demonstrations. Vacating the buildings has been a key government demand.

In another retreat, Yanukovich has now begun negotiating to keep his job, while turning it into a nearly powerless post … as long as he retains immunity from prosecution:

Yanukovych also said he would be willing to cede considerable power to parliament as part of a negotiated deal. Some of his opponents have suggested that he would be content to stay on as a figurehead if that is the only way to keep his job — and his immunity from prosecution.

A deal with the opposition would mean a stinging defeat to Russian President Vladi­mir Putin, who strove to keep Ukraine from building closer relations with the West.

Russia had earlier threatened to renege on a $15 billion aid pledge if Ukraine reversed course and the opposition toppled Yanukovich’s government. Vladimir Putin reversed course today on that threat:

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday it would honor its obligations to lend Ukraine $15 billion and reduce its gas prices even if the opposition formed the next government.

“Regarding you question whether we will review our agreements on loans and the energy sector if the opposition will take power … No, we will not,” Putin told a news conference after talks with European Union leaders in Brussels.

This came after the EU sent a signal to Putin that their patience on his meddling in Ukraine had come to an end:

Russian President Vladimir Putin and the European Union’s top two officials were set to hold “clear the air” talks in Brussels on Tuesday after months of growing tension over Ukraine and trade and energy disputes.

Instead of the normal two-day summit, the EU decided to cut out dinner with Putin on Monday night, sending a message to the Russian leader that it is no longer “business as usual”, with relations at their lowest point in years.

The summit will now involve around three hours of face-to-face discussions between Putin, European Commission President of Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, over and after lunch. …

“There is a need for a certain amount of straight talking, to clear the air perhaps, to clarify where we think this relationship is going,” a senior EU official told reporters ahead of the summit, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters in Moscow it was “high time for a frank and detailed conversation, including about our joint view of the prospects for Russia-EU relations”.

Putin’s position in Ukraine is slipping badly now, and he’s going to have to come up with a Plan B after Yanukovich, especially with his ally now trying to hang onto a golden parachute. Either Putin will have to accept dealing with a EU-directed Ukraine, or he’s going to have to roll tanks into Kiev, and those days — thankfully — have long passed. He’d better start making nice with the opposition, and the EU.

Tags: euromaidan, European Union, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin

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Source from: hotair