Showing posts with label Chris McDaniel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chris McDaniel. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

In the end, it was just a cabal of elderly Democratic women

Intheend,itwasjustacabal

In the end, it was just a cabal of elderly Democratic women

posted at 8:01 am on August 5, 2014 by Matt Vespa

It’s official; Mississippi State Senator Chris McDaniel is challenging the results of the June 24 runoff, where incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran won by 7,667. Yet, his victory has been marred by allegations of vote buying and dirty political tactics revolving around racially charged radio ads.

According to Politico, McDaniel will make his case to the 52-member central committee of the state GOP to declare him the winner, whilst keeping the option to settle this matter into the courts. All of the evidence will be submitted to the committee outlining how Sen. Cochran allegedly stole the race from him.

As National Review’s Eliana Johnson wrote before the first bout in the Mississippi primary, the Hospitality State is anything but when it comes to politics. A major point of contention within this debacle surrounds racially charged ads that McDaniel supporters say smeared the senator.

So, who released them? Last month, Johnson reported:

The political-action committee that aired the ads raised eyebrows from the outset.

For one thing, it had the same address, phone number, e-mail domain, and leader — the bishop Ronnie Crudup — as the Jackson-based New Horizon Church International. Crudup told Mississippi’s Clarion-Ledger earlier this month that he founded the PAC and raised $200,000: “Some money from the Republicans,” some from African Americans. “I raised money from a number of sources,” he said.

As it turns out, Crudup raised all of the $144,685 his PAC took in from exactly one source: Haley Barbour’s political machine. A report filed with the Federal Election Commission reveals that Mississippi Conservatives, the political-action committee founded by the former Mississippi governor and Republican National Committee chairman and run by his nephew, Henry, provided that money to Crudup’s group in four installments. The first, in the amount of $62,685, came on June 10, a week after the race was thrown into a runoff. Cochran and his allies were looking to increase voter turnout across the state, particularly among African Americans and Democrats who had not voted in the June 3 primary.

Barbour’s PAC paid an Atlanta-based Democratic consultant, Mitzi Bickers, $44,000 for “phone services.” Barbour previously told National Review Online that he paid Bickers far more for live calls than for robo-calls and that he had not heard the automated call that went out. Asked to provide a copy of it, he did not.

Then again, it now seems that this radio offensive was the brainchild of a few elderly Democratic women (via Washington Examiner):

 A Democratic activist has claimed responsibility for controversial radio ads that attempted to tie Mississippi Senate candidate Chris McDaniel to the Ku Klux Klan.

Ruth Harris, 65, of Jackson, Miss., said she and five other like-minded Democratic women pooled their resources to fund three radio spots urging voters to support Sen. Thad Cochran over McDaniel, a state senator, in Mississippi’s contentious June 24 GOP primary runoff.

Harris’ claim counters charges leveled by the McDaniel campaign that the Republican Establishment and GOP operative Henry Barbour were responsible for the ads.

In a telephone interview with the Washington Examiner on Monday morning, Harris said she has never met Barbour and doesn’t know how he ended up being linked to the radio ads. Harris also said she has never met either former Gov. Haley Barbour, Henry Barbour’s uncle, or Austin Barbour, Henry Barbour’s brother who advised the Cochran campaign.

“It was a group of ladies and I,” she said. “I don’t know how the Barbours even got [mentioned.] I’ve never met any of them.”

Well, the McDaniel campaign isn’t buying it. Noel Fritsch, McDaniel’s campaign spokesman, said in an email to the Washington Examiner that “Democrat activists don’t spend their own money in Republican primaries, and one way or another Republicans who engaged in this reprehensible behavior will be held accountable.”

I know some media outlets are calling McDaniel “the defeated Tea Party candidate that won’t go away,” but we shouldn’t fault his campaign for being furious about these ads; their candidate was being compared to the KKK and saying that he will go backwards on “race relationships between blacks and whites and other ethnic groups.” It’s outrageous. Sen. Ted Cruz even thought there should be an investigation into everything that went on during the runoff.

We shall see what happens now that a challenge has been filed. Shortly after the Fourth of July, the Associated Press reported that the window to settle this dispute was closing–and money is an issue for McDaniel; he reportedly doesn’t have the funds for a legal fight:

Money is a problem, too. Even after the Senate Conservatives Fund wired McDaniel $70,000 for his challenge, he begged for money. “We don’t currently have the resources to mount the legal challenge that this case deserves,” McDaniel wrote Wednesday in the latest of several emails soliciting donations.

State law and state history also make a successful challenge by McDaniel a long shot at best.

Mississippi law requires McDaniel to file his first election challenge with the state Republican executive committee. His campaign attorney, Mitch Tyner, said that is likely to happen next week. Ten days later, McDaniel could file a lawsuit in any county where he believes problems occurred. The state Supreme Court would appoint a special judge.

The general-election sample ballot must be given to local election officials by Sept. 10, which is 55 days before the Nov. 4 general election. That squeezes the time for a lawsuit and a new primary runoff.

I’m still convinced we need a little more time to flesh out the details regarding this fiasco.


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Thursday, July 10, 2014

Ann Coulter: Chris McDaniel’s killing his political future by contesting the Mississippi runoff results

AnnCoulter:ChrisMcDaniel’skillinghispoliticalfuture

Ann Coulter: Chris McDaniel’s killing his political future by contesting the Mississippi runoff results

posted at 8:41 pm on July 10, 2014 by Allahpundit

Her argument: Gracious losers tend to get another shot at running whereas sore losers end up being discarded. I’d be keen to see FiveThirtyEight or The Upshot confirm or debunk that with data, but never mind that.

Is what she saying true in McDaniel’s case? Even if he bowed out today and endorsed Cochran, the whole lesson of this primary is that the Mississippi GOP establishment will do whatever takes, including recruiting Democratic voters for a Republican primary, to beat someone who threatens their gravy train.

Cochran won the runoff by 7,667 votes, according to the certified vote count announced this week. McDaniel’s partisans don’t just have to prove that more than 7,000 ineligible voters went to the polls, but also that they all voted for Cochran, not McDaniel. Good luck with that.

There’s no reason to think that a majority of Mississippi Republicans didn’t want Cochran as their nominee. A lot of them might not have bothered to vote in the first primary, on the assumption that the long-serving, popular incumbent was not at risk…

McDaniel’s team complains about what Cochran’s supporters said about its guy? Nothing compares to that ugly nursing home stunt.

But some McDaniel supporters can’t think about anything but winning this one primary. They don’t care that they’re gambling with a Republican majority in the Senate — or destroying McDaniel’s future prospects. (Which could come soon — Cochran isn’t getting any younger.) As the nation goes up in smoke, they act as if the future of the country is nothing compared to their color war at summer camp.

Actually, there’s plenty of reason to think that a majority of Republicans preferred McDaniel. The data blogs have looked closely at the county returns in Mississippi at least twice, once in a day-after analysis at FiveThirtyEight by Harry Enten and again just yesterday in an Upshot piece by Nate Cohn and Derek Willis. Verdict: Black voters, who of course are overwhelmingly Democratic, were the difference. Enten estimated that black votes may have meant as much as 10 points to Cochran, propelling him from what otherwise would have been an eight-point(!) loss in the runoff to a two-point win. Cohn and Willis went precinct by precinct through one Mississippi county with a large black population and ended up marveling at how much higher turnout was for the runoff than for the first GOP primary between Cochran and McDaniel. “The data strongly suggests,” they concluded, “that higher black and Democratic turnout covered the entirety of Mr. Cochran’s margin of victory.” It’s not out of the question that 40,000 more Obama supporters voted in the runoff than the initial primary; Cohn and Willis suspect that they broke for Cochran by a margin of 20 to 1, which helps explain why he ended up with 33,000+ more votes in the runoff than he did a few weeks earlier. Subtract those Democratic votes, leaving an electorate comprised of Republicans and right-leaning indies, and McDaniel almost certainly wins.

None of that is illegal, though, or at least not provably so. As long as those voters didn’t also vote in the Democratic primary, they were free to vote in the GOP runoff. (State law requires that they intend to vote for the primary winner in the general election too but there’s no way to enforce that.) On the other hand, I’m not sure Coulter’s right that Team McDaniel would need to prove not only that there were 7,000+ invalid votes cast by people who voted in the Democratic primary but that those votes all went to Cochran. Why do you have to prove which candidate they were cast for? If the number of invalid votes is greater than the margin of victory, the legitimacy of the outcome is in question.

Back to my first point, though. Even if McDaniel suddenly dropped out, backed Cochran, and kneeled before Haley Barbour to kiss his ring, he’s still going to be a pork-slashing tea partier when all of this is over, right? Why would Mississippi’s establishment be interested in backing someone like that? The reason the Barbourites cajoled Cochran into running again isn’t because they can’t imagine a future without Thad, it’s because they can’t imagine a future without someone like Thad. And if Thad had retired this year, leaving McDaniel to face a lesser known establishmentarian who didn’t have Cochran’s incumbency advantage, the tea partier might have won the seat. Mississippi’s cronies want a fellow crony in the Senate; if McDaniel’s willing to rethink his politics and be that crony, then he has a future. (Especially since his tea-party cred will keep right-wing objections at bay, at least for awhile.) If he isn’t then it doesn’t matter if he’s a gracious loser or not, in which case he might as well do everything he can to have this election result overturned. This may, after all, be the closest he ever gets to the Senate: Roger Wicker, the other senator from Mississippi, is a spry 63 years old and just won a new term in 2012 so it may be decades before he’s vulnerable. Meanwhile, Cochran will probably retire during his new term, clearing the way for some new establishment crony to fill his seat. That’s McDaniel’s best fallback plan potentially: Although Gov. Phil Bryant can fill a vacancy temporarily via appointment, Mississippi is required to hold a special election within 100 days to fill the seat. McDaniel would have an advantage over the rest of the field now that he’s built a name in the state. However, if the vacancy happens in an election year, the special election is held the same day as the general election. In other words, if Cochran retires early in 2016, Bryant could appoint a Barbourite to the seat and let him build name recognition and incumbency for months before the special election. And all of that assumes, of course, that Mississippi Republicans won’t try to change the vacancy rules so that Bryant can appoint someone for even longer.

Exit question: Why doesn’t Haley Barbour himself fill Cochran’s eventual vacancy? He’s got the name and the money to keep McDaniel and the tea partiers at bay.


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Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Haley Barbour misfires in attempt to tar Chris McDaniel’s approach to racial politics

HaleyBarbourmisfiresinattempttotarChris

Haley Barbour misfires in attempt to tar Chris McDaniel’s approach to racial politics

posted at 4:41 pm on June 24, 2014 by Noah Rothman

Former Republican Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, an outspoken supporter of embattled Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) who faces state Sen. Chris McDaniel in a statewide runoff election Tuesday for the GOP Senate nomination, did his ally few favors in an interview on MSNBC.

NBC reporter Peter Alexander began by quoting a story in the New York Times which reported that Cochran was courting African-American voters in his quest to retain his seat in the Senate. When asked to respond to this report, McDaniel attacked his primary opponent for attempting to retain his seat by seeking the support of Democrats.

“I’m not concerned about them being African-American, I’m concerned about them being liberal,” McDaniel said of the voters the Cochran camp was targeting. “If Senator Cochran is going to court Democrats to save his seat, it is a clear indication that he has abandoned conservatives in the state of Mississippi.”

“Is McDaniel walking a fine line here?” Alexander asked Cochran.

“Not walking it very well,” Barbour said.

He went on to note that Cochran is defending Mississippi’s federal education funding against attacks by McDaniel. Barbour said that Mississippi’s voters might be incensed by McDaniel’s opposition to the federal Department of Education.

“Our state gets over a billion and a half dollars in federal funding for education, and Chris McDaniel says it’s unconstitutional?” Barbour remarked. “Some of those people are African-American. Some of them are Democrats. But tens of thousands of people concerned about Mississippi schools are independents and Republicans.”

This is not especially adept surrogate work by Barbour. Not only does he attack through implication McDaniel’s approach to racial politics, a maneuver which will only engender sympathy for him from the core Republican electorate, but he attacks the tea party candidate for being against ineffective federal spending.

Coming from a former head of the Republican Governor’s Association, no matter how beloved Barbour is in Mississippi, this statement comes across as the ultimate misreading of the GOP primary electorate by an establishment figure.


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Thursday, June 19, 2014

Is the new celebrity endorsement for Thad Cochran a Hail Mary?

IsthenewcelebrityendorsementforThadCochran

Is the new celebrity endorsement for Thad Cochran a Hail Mary?

posted at 9:21 am on June 19, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Readers have been on pins and needles over the Mississippi GOP primary fight between incumbent US Senator Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel. The race has produced a lot of questions — about McDaniel’s temperament, Cochran’s abilities, the Tea Party versus the Establishment, and even which side plays the dirtier tricks. But one question in particular has gone unanswered:

Wait no more, my friends. Behold the latest campaign ad running in the final days of the runoff, courtesy of the US Chamber of Commerce:

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is bringing in a big-time closer for the Mississippi Senate race: NFL legend Brett Favre.

Favre, a Gulfport native who has coached football at Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, appears in a new Chamber ad praising Cochran as a “proven and respected leader” who can deliver education funding for Mississippi. …

The former Green Bay Packers quarterback may be one of the few voices and faces that can stand out on Mississippi’s cluttered airwaves in the final days of Cochran’s nomination fight against state Sen. Chris McDaniel. The two are competing in a June 24 runoff after they deadlocked in the first round of voting earlier this month.

That’s probably not a bad calculation. Favre’s sudden involvement in a political campaign will make news in Mississippi and nationwide, and might focus a little more outside money into the final stretch. But why didn’t the Chamber of Commerce get Favre involved in the first round of the primary? Cochran didn’t lose by much, and the impact that the Chamber obviously hopes to get with this ad might have prevented the need for the runoff in the first place. Bringing out Favre now looks a bit like desperation — a Hail Mary, if you will. But Hail Marys occasionally connect.

On the other hand, while Favre might be a favorite son in Mississippi, that’s not necessarily equivalent to a trusted voice in politics. It also might prompt a couple of uncomfortable parallels:

Favre has the Iron Man record in the NFL, with 321 consecutive starts with the Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, and Minnesota Vikings. Even when he was playing, people questioned whether he was taking that record too seriously, and the Packers finally had to let him go to get Aaron Rodgers on the field. Thad Cochran has a 36-year run in the Senate on the line, with an additional five-plus years from his time in the House for a 41-year run in Washington DC. Baseball Crank’s quip about hanging it up is a point that some Mississippians will take to heart next Tuesday, and Favre’s appearance might not convince them otherwise.


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Friday, June 13, 2014

Video: Thad Cochran had no idea that Eric Cantor lost

Video:ThadCochranhadnoideathatEric

Video: Thad Cochran had no idea that Eric Cantor lost

posted at 12:31 pm on June 13, 2014 by Allahpundit

I don’t know what to tell you here except to repeat a point I made last week, that it’s disgraceful for Mississippi establishmentarians to be pushing this poor guy through one last campaign when he’s clearly exhausted. They were desperate to keep feeding on pork, they saw Chris McDaniel and the tea party as a threat to that, and they knew that their best chance at stopping them was sticking with a state institution like Cochran even though “out of touch” doesn’t begin to capture how remote he is anymore. After watching this, it feels like outright exploitation.

And thus, a question must be asked:

I had the same thought after watching the clip. Listen to the mindless boilerplate he resorts to, about winners and losers, when he’s put on the spot about Cantor. The shock that the political world experienced on Tuesday when news broke that the sitting majority leader had lost is completely absent. Best-case scenario, I think, is that he’s heard of Cantor but has no idea why his defeat was significant. It’s time, Mississippi.



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Sunday, June 8, 2014

Can Thad Cochran get Democrats to pull him over the finish line?

CanThadCochrangetDemocratstopullhim

Can Thad Cochran get Democrats to pull him over the finish line?

posted at 11:01 am on June 8, 2014 by Jazz Shaw

After the dust failed to entirely settle following the Mississippi GOP primary, sending us to a runoff between Senator Thad Cochran and state senator Chris McDaniel, Ed had the following to say about Cochran’s prospects.

[Cochran's] inability to best McDaniel last night may have some Mississippi voters who supported the incumbent last night wonder whether it’s better to make a change now that is obviously inevitable, while those few who voted for someone other than the top two finishers are already looking for a Cochran alternative. The runoff will probably still be relatively close, but don’t be surprised to see McDaniel win by more than 51/49, either.

Team Cochran might have been reading Ed’s comments and taken notice. But rather than throwing their hands up in despair, reports indicate that they may have decided to attempt a rather unusual comeback strategy for a primary.

Senator Thad Cochran’s supporters opened Mississippi’s Republican Senate runoff on Wednesday by signaling that they would treat the race like a general election and seek the votes of Democrats and independents during the three-week campaign against State Senator Chris McDaniel.

The only reason this is a possibility is found in the rather free wheeling rules of Mississippi election law. Nobody registers by party, so anyone can vote in the election. The Democrats already have their nominee without the need for a runoff – and they’re highly unlikely to win the general election – so there’s nothing stopping them from voting in the GOP tiebreaker this month. Still, Matt Lewis seems somewhat skeptical.

The good news for Cochran is that Lieberman and Murkowski both found ways to expand their pool of voters and defy their party’s base — after having lost a primary contest. The bad news for Cochran is that they both did it in a General Election. It’s presumably going to be much harder for Cochran to get Democrats to turn out and vote in a Republican runoff election on some random Tuesday in June.

I’m not going to write this off as an impossible task, primarily because the margin between Cochran and McDaniel in the primary was pretty slender. I don’t think anyone is expecting McDaniel to suddenly surge to a 65% or more blowout in the runoff, even if it were limited to only actual Republicans voting. With that in mind, Cochran may not need a massive surge of insurgent Democrats to get him to 50.1%. But it would certainly be a strange and challenging course to follow.

First of all, we typically think of Republicans as needing to run to the Right in the primary and then glide back to the middle for the general election. This concept will force Cochran to essentially attempt a zig zag to the Left. I’m not sure what sort of sales pitch one makes to Mississippi Democrats in a situation like this. The only thing that comes to mind is to effectively say, “Look… you’re going to lose the general election anyway and wind up with a Republican in this Senate seat. Would you rather have me – the guy you already know – or that crazy Tea Party guy instead?

But even if that’s the pitch, you still have to get people out the door. Primary races are notoriously low in turnout as it is. This is a runoff in a non-election week. As Matt Lewis noted above, how motivated will Democrats be to show up on a Tuesday to vote for (or against) a candidate who’s not even from their own party?


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Wednesday, June 4, 2014

GOP establishment wonders: Is it time to abandon Thad Cochran?

GOPestablishmentwonders:Isittimetoabandon

GOP establishment wonders: Is it time to abandon Thad Cochran?

posted at 6:41 pm on June 4, 2014 by Allahpundit

Realistically, Cochran’s got maybe a 10 percent chance of winning the runoff. McDaniel’s base is excited to knock off the incumbent and outside groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund are prepared to keep pumping in money to send a conservative to the Senate. Cochran’s base, which includes lots of casual voters who favor him for name-recognition reasons alone, probably can’t be bothered to trudge to the polls for the second time in three weeks. That’s why insurgent candidates almost always pull the upset once they make it to a runoff. The only way to get Cochran voters back out there on June 24th is for his allies to spend boatloads more money tearing down McDaniel and promoting Cochran. And if it doesn’t work and McDaniel wins the runoff anyway, then you’ve spent three more weeks tearing your party’s new nominee apart for no reason.

The NRSC insists it’s “all in” for Cochran, but don’t kid yourself. They’re saying that as a precaution, until Team Establishment can huddle and come to a decision. They may end up going in again for Cochran, but rest assured, it won’t be “all in.” And some outfits, like Karl Rove’s group American Crossroads, won’t go in at all.

“The Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund will bankrupt themselves just to make their point. The NRSC, the chamber don’t have that luxury—they’re looking at a Republican majority,” one pro-Cochran strategist said…

American Crossroads, for one, announced Wednesday afternoon that it wouldn’t get involved in the contentious runoff. “We have completed our work on Senate primaries this cycle … this is not our fight,” spokesman Paul Lindsay said. Crossroads didn’t air ads in the primary, but it donated $120,000 to the pro-Cochran super PAC Mississippi Conservatives, according to Henry Barbour, the nephew of former Gov. Haley Barbour, who runs the group.

Cochran faces disadvantages in the runoff that range from his lethargic campaign effort to the likelihood of a smaller, more-conservative turnout in three weeks and the prohibition on Democratic crossover voters participating in the election.

Establishment groups are reportedly meeting today to decide how to play it. At a minimum, it sounds like they’re going to stop trying to tie McDaniel to that repellent invasion of Mrs. Cochran’s privacy in her nursing home, since obviously they don’t want to hurt the likely nominee at this point any more than they have to. The campaign from here on out will be strictly (or mostly) pro-Cochran, not anti-McD. But look: Given the long odds and the fact that Cochran palpably didn’t want to run this race in the first place, isn’t backing off and letting the guy magnanimously concede the decent thing to do at this point? C’mon.

Cochran created his own problems, too, frustrating national Republicans last year by wringing his hands over whether to retire and surprising many in the Republican establishment when he announced in late December, two months after McDaniel announced his campaign, that he would seek reelection to a seventh term.

“I don’t think Cochran was as prepared for this challenge as other incumbents who have dealt with similar challenges. He didn’t have a lot of money or a real campaign infrastructure,” says a strategist for the McDaniel campaign. Mississippi heavyweights such as former governor Haley Barbour and his sons, Austin and Henry; the state’s current governor, Phil Bryant; and former Senate majority leader Trent Lott all stepped in to boost Cochran.

Cochran supporters worked to turn out Democratic voters, placing an ad in a Jackson-based newspaper with a largely African-American readership. (That strategy is limited in the next three weeks because Mississippi election law forbids anybody who voted in Tuesday’s Democratic primary from voting in the runoff election of the opposite party.) In the end, though, even his strongest backers were expressing reservations.

Sure sounds to me like he wanted to retire, was fully prepared to, but then was begged by establishment GOPers both inside and outside of Mississippi after the shutdown in October to hang on just a bit longer in the name of crushing the tea-party challenge back home. For all his weaknesses on the stump, running a long-time incumbent like Cochran again was obviously the best play for pro-pork, pro-business-lobby Republicans to thwart a guy who’s positioning himself as another “defund”-style Cruz conservative. They propped Cochran up with an on-the-fly reelection campaign, he played along, and together they almost pulled it off. Almost. Why not pat the guy on the back for pouring 40 years’ worth of federal dollars into the trough in Mississippi and let him play golf instead of running him around for another month? Especially since, if they’re not “all in” against McDaniel, Cochran’s odds of winning are even smaller than everyone expects.

In lieu of an exit question, read Philip Klein on why the tea party’s already won in Mississippi regardless of what happens in the runoff. The goal here, always, is to pressure Republicans in Congress into voting a more conservative line. The best way to do that is to elect conservatives, but merely scaring the shinola out of an incumbent in a losing effort is enough to make the rest of the caucus sit up and take notice.


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Runoff next in MS Senate GOP primary

RunoffnextinMSSenateGOPprimary

Runoff next in MS Senate GOP primary

posted at 8:41 am on June 4, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Call it a do-over. After months of bitter fighting in Mississippi between the Tea Party-backed insurgent and the defiant Establishmentarian, the GOP primary for the US Senate seat will have one last, three-week hurrah. Chris McDaniel barely edged out 38-year incumbent Thad Cochran in the voting but narrowly missed the 50%+1 vote mark needed to win the nomination. A runoff will take place between just the two top candidates on June 24:

Locked in a race that won’t end, Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran and tea party-backed challenger Chris McDaniel pointed toward a possible June 24 runoff after battling to a near-draw Tuesday in a primary that underscored Republican differences.

Unofficial returns from 98 percent of the state’s precincts showed McDaniel with slightly over 49 percent of the vote in a three-way race and Cochran with slightly less. It takes a majority by one candidate to avoid a runoff.

“For too long, we’ve been silent. For too long, we sat still. For too long, we let them have their way with us,” McDaniel told supporters late Tuesday in a slap at the Washington establishment.

“It’s looking like a runoff,” conceded Rep. Gregg Harper, addressing a crowd of Cochran supporters.

It’s going to cost some outside groups even more cash in a race where they’ve already spent general-election levels of money:

Already a savagely personal race, the duel between Cochran and activist state Sen. Chris McDaniel could now drag on until the next vote on June 24 and present national Republicans with a dilemma: Whether to continue supporting the senator and tearing down McDaniel at the potential cost of damaging the party’s eventual nominee.

Outside groups have already spent more than $8 million in the Republican Senate primary, an extraordinary sum in a small state that rarely hosts competitive federal elections. Cochran and his allies have assailed McDaniel as a bumbling snake-oil salesman and finger-in-the wind opportunist who’s out of touch with Mississippi’s priorities. McDaniel and his campaign have attacked Cochran’s record of voting for federal spending, accused him of being soft on President Barack Obama and raised not-so-veiled questions about the senator’s age.

First, let’s not worry too much about any damage to the eventual nominee, for three reasons. One, it’s difficult to imagine that this race will get any more “savagely personal” than it already has. Two, there will still be four months for whatever damage is done to dissipate in a very Republican-friendly environment. And three, each of the two Republicans drew about twice as many votes as all Democrat votes combined in their primary last night, with about a 4:1 ratio between the two parties. The general election won’t be an 80/20, but it won’t be 51/49, either.

A runoff only really looks like bad news for Thad Cochran. McDaniel established his credibility as a state-wide candidate with his plurality over Cochran last night, and as Allahpundit noted last night, Cochran’s standing as an unassailable institution has crumbled. His inability to best McDaniel last night may have some Mississippi voters who supported the incumbent last night wonder whether it’s better to make a change now that is obviously inevitable, while those few who voted for someone other than the top two finishers are already looking for a Cochran alternative. The runoff will probably still be relatively close, but don’t be surprised to see McDaniel win by more than 51/49, either.


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Friday, May 23, 2014

Three more arrested in Mississippi mud-flinging case

ThreemorearrestedinMississippimud-flingingcase

Three more arrested in Mississippi mud-flinging case

posted at 8:41 am on May 23, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The curious case of Claton Kelly got even more curious yesterday. Police arrested three more men in the investigation of the photographing of Rose Cochran in her nursing home, including the former radio partner of a candidate in the Republican primary for the US Senate seat in Mississippi. All three were charged with conspiracy, and two face even more charges:

The arrests today included attorney Mark Mayfield, a member of the board of the Central Mississippi Tea Party; Richard Sager of Laurel; and John Mary of Hattiesburg.

The three men were charged with conspiracy. Sager is also charged with evidence tampering, while Mary faces multiple charges.

The Clarion-Ledger updates the scorecards with some background on all three men:

Mary is the most mysterious of the three. The Hattiesburg resident is also known by his radio name, John Bert. When McDaniel was elected to the state Senate and left the WMXI radio program he started — and which recordings of have caused the candidate heartburn during the campaign — Mary became co-host to Fairchilds, who had co-hosted with McDaniel.

But Mary and McDaniel are no strangers. McDaniel continued to participate with the radio program and was a regular guest host. According to internet postings, Mary and McDaniel even regularly co-hosted together when McDaniel would visit the show. …

Mayfield’s connection to the McDaniel campaign seems to be the strongest. Mayfield is listed as the vice chairman of the Mississippi Tea Party, which was quick to endorse McDaniel when he announced his candidacy. Mayfield was also one of the more active volunteers with the campaign. He helped distribute literature and yard signs. The Ridgeland attorney repeatedly posted in Facebook comments about where people could pick up campaign material and about upcoming events. Mayfield apparently volunteered in a campaign office on Lakeland Drive in the shopping center behind Mugshots. And Mayfield contributed $500 to McDaniel’s campaign.

But Mayfield’s political involvement also extended into McDaniel’s work as a state senator. Mayfield was at the Capitol often during legislative sessions, and he helped organize political events aimed at fiscal issues pushed by the Senate Conservative Coalition, which McDaniel started. In 2009, Mayfield helped organize the first Tax Day Tea Party event in the state with WJNT radio host Kim Wade. One of the headliners of that event was McDaniel.

Sager, on the other hand, is facing the most serious charge of felony obstruction, as well as conspiracy. So far, police and prosecutors aren’t talking much about what they’re finding in this investigation, but the additional arrests strongly suggest that this wasn’t just a case of a blogger wandering far off the reservation all on his own. If authorities are filing obstruction charges, that also suggests that at least one person was trying to clear his tracks.

The DA handling the case made it a point to say that there is no evidence at this point that the McDaniel campaign had any involvement in this plot, although he also stopped short of issuing a definitive clean bill of health on that score, too. Given what we already know about the initial response from the campaigna response that they foolishly denied at first — that fits with those facts which have been made public. The Cochran campaign hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in this instance, either. And strictly from an analytical/theoretical point of view, any major campaign with even a modicum of professional competence would have had nothing to do with this kind of stunt.

However, it’s still … curious that four men now seem to have connected with each other with no prior strong connection to each other (that’s known at this point anyway) to have concluded that this project was a good idea. The results of this investigation will be very, very interesting to see.


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Source from: hotair

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Blogger’s wife: Chris McDaniel asked him to take down the video of Thad Cochran’s wife right after it went up

Blogger’swife:ChrisMcDanielaskedhimtotake

Blogger’s wife: Chris McDaniel asked him to take down the video of Thad Cochran’s wife right after it went up

posted at 3:21 pm on May 20, 2014 by Allahpundit

Via TPM, can’t prove that she’s telling the truth but this does jibe with what we already know about the McDaniel camp reacting quickly, and emphatically negatively, to the video of Rose Cochran after they found out about it. Which makes sense even if you’re unwilling to believe that McDaniel wouldn’t condone a hit this nasty: From his standpoint, the risk of a ferocious backlash from conspiring in something like this is much greater than the political reward he’d get from making an old man’s tragic personal life an issue. The Kellys really have no reason to cover for McDaniel either. Granted, they both support him against Cochran, but the quickest ticket out of legal trouble right now would be to point the finger at McDaniel and try to make a deal with the DA. Instead, here’s Kelly’s wife confirming that McDaniel wanted the video down almost as soon as it went up. Unless they’re very loyal soldiers for a campaign they’re not even affiliated with, Occam’s razor suggests she’s telling the truth.

Tara Kelly said her husband was working to get the “Constitutional Clayton” blog and YouTube channel off the ground when he received tips from “someone on the Internet” accusing Thad Cochran of having an affair.

“They gave him information as to where Rose Cochran was staying, as well as other information,” Tara Kelly said. “… I wish I could tell you the names of these people on the Internet that gave my husband this information. But I don’t know and can only hope it comes out who they are.”…

“Now, here’s where it gets tricky,” Tara Kelly said. “The video was up for about an hour and a half when Clayton received word, either through Facebook or the phone, I’m not sure, that ‘the big man,’ meaning Chris McDaniel, wanted it taken down. The exact words, I remember Clayton told me, were ‘the big man himself says take it down.’ Clayton was already going to take it down but did so at that time.”

[Kelly's lawyer Kevin] Camp, however, said his client took down the video when the responses were more about the photos of Rose Cochran than about the message of the video.

Three lingering questions. One: Why does Kelly’s lawyer have a different explanation for why the video came down? Two: How did Kelly get inside the nursing home to see Rose Cochran in the first place? He didn’t sneak in, says his wife, and they’ve got the parking pass from the nursing home to prove it. And three, most importantly: Who’s the nefarious malefactor who nudged Kelly to go shoot some video of Rose Cochran in the first place? Evidently there’s some Iago out there who was whispering in his virtual ear about making a name for himself in blogging and thought that videotaping an old lady with dementia was a smart place to start. What’s that person’s motive?


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Source from: hotair

Monday, May 19, 2014

Did McDaniel campaign know about video before statement?

DidMcDanielcampaignknowaboutvideobeforestatement?

Did McDaniel campaign know about video before statement?

posted at 9:21 am on May 19, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Jazz related the horrible story emerging from the Mississippi GOP primary for the US Senate over the weekend, but the case of Clayton Kelly got a little stranger since Saturday. The Chris McDaniel campaign has had to backtrack on its initial statement of total ignorance of Kelly’s activities, and Breitbart’s Matthew Boyle reports that they may have known about the video for three weeks before its explosion in the media:

On Saturday, April 26, at 8:54am, Melanie Sojourner, campaign manager for Mississippi state senator Chris McDaniel’s primary challenge of Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), sent an irate email.

“Someone has created a video about Thad and Kay,” Sojourner wrote in the email, a partially redacted version of which was provided to Breitbart News. “It must come down ASAP. Does anyone know where this came from?”

Sojourner was responding to a video posted online by Clayton Thomas Kelly, 28, a blogger who had been compiling documents and other information about Cochran’s relationship with his executive assistant, Kay Webber. …

“If I find out anyone associated with our staff had anything to do with this it is immediate grounds for dismissal,” Sojourner wrote in the April 26 email. “We have to know we cannot engage in these attacks.”

It’s the date that’s the problem. The e-mail itself tends to corroborate the McDaniel campaign response that they have no connection to Kelly. However, they also insisted that they knew nothing about the video until just before everyone else noticed that Kelly creeped into the nursing home to take video or photos of the vulnerable Mrs. Cochran, suffering from advanced dementia. Boyle explains:

McDaniel’s campaign adamantly denies having any communications with Kelly before he illicitly entered Rose Cochran’s room. But Cochran’s campaign and officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee are pushing for more information from the campaign after a series of facts undermined its top official’s – including McDaniel’s – insistence they knew nothing the incident when initially asked by the media about it Saturday morning.

The intent was to spread the rumor that Thad Cochran had engaged in an extramarital affair, which would hardly be news among politicians in Washington DC. For a man whose wife has been hopelessly bedridden for more than a decade, such an attack would be at best problematic, and more likely to focus attention on the mud-tossers than the target anyway. But breaking into a nursing home to take advantage of a woman who cannot defend herself in any possible way just to get unnecessary visual images for such a cheap attack? That’s a political disaster.

One can therefore understand why the McDaniel campaign did a top-to-bottom scouring to make sure none of their staff had any connection with Kelly or this despicable attack. But if that were the case, then why did no one at Team McDaniel just say on Saturday that they’d been doing their own investigation and (a) found no connection to Kelly, or (b) fired anyone connected to him? It’s a lot simpler to tell the truth, especially when a paper trail apparently exists attesting to it.

The Cochran campaign released a voice-mail recording from Sojourner as further evidence that Team McDaniel knew about Kelly’s activities before his arrest:

Sen. Thad Cochran’s campaign has released a voice mail from opponent Chris McDaniel’s campaign manager, state Sen. Melanie Sojourner, to Cochran campaign manager Kirk Sims about the arrest of a political blogger accused of sneaking into the nursing home room of Cochran’s bedridden wife and posting images of her.

The Cochran campaign says the message appears to contradict the McDaniel campaign’s statements that it knew nothing before the arrest about the blogger and McDaniel supporter. …

Sojourner initially tells Sims in the Saturday voice message that “We don’t know this guy. We have no idea who he is.”

But then later she says: “There was some stuff several months ago where this guy was doing some insane stuff online. We found out about it and Chris and I immediately sicced a bunch of volunteers trying to find out who was the source of just a lot of ugly rumors and nasty stuff and we wanted it squashed …”

That could just mean that they’d heard Kelly was off the reservation a few months ago, and not about specific knowledge of this particular effort. But that also doesn’t square up well with the categorical denial from McDaniel and his team over the weekend, either. At best, this looks like amateur hour.

The man who broke into the nursing home where Thad Cochran’s wife has lived for the past 14 years remains in jail, but police aren’t sitting still:

Clayton Kelly, the man accused of entering Sen. Thad Cochran’s wife Rose’s nursing home room and taking pictures which were posted to the internet, remains jailed on $100,000 bond after his initial appearance Sunday afternoon.

Judge Dale Danks told the court he was upholding Kelly’s current bond, but scheduled a preliminary hearing for Thursday.

Kelly is charged with exploitation of a vulnerable adult after police said he gained access to St. Catherine’s Village, a nursing home in Madison, and to Rose Cochran’s room. He then allegedly took pictures of her that he posted on his blog, “Constitutional Clayton.”

A representative of the Madison Police Department said there are other individuals in the case that they’d like to talk to “who might have been part of a conspiracy.” At this point, police won’t comment further, citing the ongoing investigation.

Kelly got arraigned this morning, with the allegation of a “possible conspiracy” part of the proceedings:

If police are looking at a conspiracy, then Kelly’s in bigger trouble than it first appeared. And so will be anyone connected to him.


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Source from: hotair