Showing posts with label runoff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label runoff. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Perdue grabs surprise runoff victory over Kingston in Georgia

PerduegrabssurpriserunoffvictoryoverKingstonin

Perdue grabs surprise runoff victory over Kingston in Georgia

posted at 10:41 am on July 23, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

First-time political candidate David Perdue won a surprise victory over favored Rep. Jack Kingston in the Republican runoff for the US Senate nomination in Georgia. Kingston, who had the backing of the US Chamber of Commerce as well as conservatives such as my Salem colleague Erick Erickson, had been leading in almost every poll as the runoff approached. In the end, Perdue’s outsider message may have won the day:

Businessman David Perdue stunned Georgia’s Republican political establishment Tuesday by capturing the party’s U.S. Senate nomination in his first run for office.

The former CEO of Reebok and Dollar General toppled 11-term Rep. Jack Kingston by a narrow margin, setting up a battle of political newcomers with famous kin in the fall. Perdue’s cousin, Sonny, was a two-term governor and Nunn’s father, Sam, was a four-term U.S. Senator.

In addition to his famous last name and lingering political network from his cousin, Perdue deployed $3 million of his own money to back his bid. Still, he was outspent by Kingston and allied Super PACs – including the deep pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

That leaves the Senate race in Georgia to two political neophytes — Perdue and Michelle Nunn, who has also never run for office until now. Both come from political families, however.  Nunn’s father Sam spent four terms in the Senate before retiring in 1996 as a blue-dog Democrat who voted in favor of tort reform and in support of the death penalty and balanced budgets. Nunn’s challenge will be to convince Georgia voters that she’s a chip off the old block while still representing the outsider, anti-establishment perspective.

Perdue’s win makes that a little more difficult, Politico’s James Hohmann points out:

The general election is likely to be a costly battle between two candidates running as “outsiders,” despite their politically powerful families. Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn’s father, Sam Nunn, represented Georgia in the Senate for 24 years. Perdue’s first cousin, Sonny Perdue, was the state’s first Republican governor elected since Reconstruction, serving two terms from 2003 to 2011.

With Kingston’s defeat, Nunn has lost her chance to run against Washington and the national debt. She is expected, instead, to contrast her background as a nonprofit executive against Perdue’s tenure as a CEO at companies like Reebok and Dollar General.

Georgia is the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a Republican-held seat this fall, which ensures it will be one of the most closely watched races on the map.

Democrats might have hoped for a GOP split such as that seen in Mississippi after a close primary and runoff. If so, they’re doubly disappointed as Kingston wasted no time in endorsing his former opponent:

Kingston immediately pledged his support in a concession call to Perdue and told him “once we combine our two camps we will absolutely be unstoppable.”

Erick blames the Chamber of Commerce endorsement for the narrow loss:

In the last two weeks, David Perdue made hay out of walking out of his meeting with the Chamber. He claimed the Chamber wanted him to vote with them 100% of the time. He would not.

That message resonated. Kingston was the career politician in the pocket of the Chamber and would pass amnesty.

Not now. He lost. And he did so largely because David Perdue made Kingston own his Chamber of Commerce endorsement.

Erick’s a lot closer to the race than I am, and the narrowness of the runoff makes this a very plausible analysis. It might be simpler than this, though. Kingston’s been in Washington for 22 years, and with or without the Chamber of Commerce endorsement, that’s baggage in the last few cycles. Georgia voters may just have wanted a reasonable alternative to a career politician, and Perdue managed to make that case for himself in the course of the primary and runoff. Don’t discount the power of populism in this cycle — and it might be fortunate for the national GOP that they defused that argument in Georgia, assuming Perdue doesn’t blow the general election.


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Source from: hotair

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Ann Coulter: Chris McDaniel’s killing his political future by contesting the Mississippi runoff results

AnnCoulter:ChrisMcDaniel’skillinghispoliticalfuture

Ann Coulter: Chris McDaniel’s killing his political future by contesting the Mississippi runoff results

posted at 8:41 pm on July 10, 2014 by Allahpundit

Her argument: Gracious losers tend to get another shot at running whereas sore losers end up being discarded. I’d be keen to see FiveThirtyEight or The Upshot confirm or debunk that with data, but never mind that.

Is what she saying true in McDaniel’s case? Even if he bowed out today and endorsed Cochran, the whole lesson of this primary is that the Mississippi GOP establishment will do whatever takes, including recruiting Democratic voters for a Republican primary, to beat someone who threatens their gravy train.

Cochran won the runoff by 7,667 votes, according to the certified vote count announced this week. McDaniel’s partisans don’t just have to prove that more than 7,000 ineligible voters went to the polls, but also that they all voted for Cochran, not McDaniel. Good luck with that.

There’s no reason to think that a majority of Mississippi Republicans didn’t want Cochran as their nominee. A lot of them might not have bothered to vote in the first primary, on the assumption that the long-serving, popular incumbent was not at risk…

McDaniel’s team complains about what Cochran’s supporters said about its guy? Nothing compares to that ugly nursing home stunt.

But some McDaniel supporters can’t think about anything but winning this one primary. They don’t care that they’re gambling with a Republican majority in the Senate — or destroying McDaniel’s future prospects. (Which could come soon — Cochran isn’t getting any younger.) As the nation goes up in smoke, they act as if the future of the country is nothing compared to their color war at summer camp.

Actually, there’s plenty of reason to think that a majority of Republicans preferred McDaniel. The data blogs have looked closely at the county returns in Mississippi at least twice, once in a day-after analysis at FiveThirtyEight by Harry Enten and again just yesterday in an Upshot piece by Nate Cohn and Derek Willis. Verdict: Black voters, who of course are overwhelmingly Democratic, were the difference. Enten estimated that black votes may have meant as much as 10 points to Cochran, propelling him from what otherwise would have been an eight-point(!) loss in the runoff to a two-point win. Cohn and Willis went precinct by precinct through one Mississippi county with a large black population and ended up marveling at how much higher turnout was for the runoff than for the first GOP primary between Cochran and McDaniel. “The data strongly suggests,” they concluded, “that higher black and Democratic turnout covered the entirety of Mr. Cochran’s margin of victory.” It’s not out of the question that 40,000 more Obama supporters voted in the runoff than the initial primary; Cohn and Willis suspect that they broke for Cochran by a margin of 20 to 1, which helps explain why he ended up with 33,000+ more votes in the runoff than he did a few weeks earlier. Subtract those Democratic votes, leaving an electorate comprised of Republicans and right-leaning indies, and McDaniel almost certainly wins.

None of that is illegal, though, or at least not provably so. As long as those voters didn’t also vote in the Democratic primary, they were free to vote in the GOP runoff. (State law requires that they intend to vote for the primary winner in the general election too but there’s no way to enforce that.) On the other hand, I’m not sure Coulter’s right that Team McDaniel would need to prove not only that there were 7,000+ invalid votes cast by people who voted in the Democratic primary but that those votes all went to Cochran. Why do you have to prove which candidate they were cast for? If the number of invalid votes is greater than the margin of victory, the legitimacy of the outcome is in question.

Back to my first point, though. Even if McDaniel suddenly dropped out, backed Cochran, and kneeled before Haley Barbour to kiss his ring, he’s still going to be a pork-slashing tea partier when all of this is over, right? Why would Mississippi’s establishment be interested in backing someone like that? The reason the Barbourites cajoled Cochran into running again isn’t because they can’t imagine a future without Thad, it’s because they can’t imagine a future without someone like Thad. And if Thad had retired this year, leaving McDaniel to face a lesser known establishmentarian who didn’t have Cochran’s incumbency advantage, the tea partier might have won the seat. Mississippi’s cronies want a fellow crony in the Senate; if McDaniel’s willing to rethink his politics and be that crony, then he has a future. (Especially since his tea-party cred will keep right-wing objections at bay, at least for awhile.) If he isn’t then it doesn’t matter if he’s a gracious loser or not, in which case he might as well do everything he can to have this election result overturned. This may, after all, be the closest he ever gets to the Senate: Roger Wicker, the other senator from Mississippi, is a spry 63 years old and just won a new term in 2012 so it may be decades before he’s vulnerable. Meanwhile, Cochran will probably retire during his new term, clearing the way for some new establishment crony to fill his seat. That’s McDaniel’s best fallback plan potentially: Although Gov. Phil Bryant can fill a vacancy temporarily via appointment, Mississippi is required to hold a special election within 100 days to fill the seat. McDaniel would have an advantage over the rest of the field now that he’s built a name in the state. However, if the vacancy happens in an election year, the special election is held the same day as the general election. In other words, if Cochran retires early in 2016, Bryant could appoint a Barbourite to the seat and let him build name recognition and incumbency for months before the special election. And all of that assumes, of course, that Mississippi Republicans won’t try to change the vacancy rules so that Bryant can appoint someone for even longer.

Exit question: Why doesn’t Haley Barbour himself fill Cochran’s eventual vacancy? He’s got the name and the money to keep McDaniel and the tea partiers at bay.


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Source from: hotair

Friday, June 27, 2014

“Several” Republican senators reportedly uneasy with GOP’s tactics in Mississippi runoff

“Several”RepublicansenatorsreportedlyuneasywithGOP’stactics

“Several” Republican senators reportedly uneasy with GOP’s tactics in Mississippi runoff

posted at 2:41 pm on June 27, 2014 by Allahpundit

I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that it’s not the tactics themselves that bother them as much as the attention those tactics are receiving from conservative voters.

Says Red State’s Leon Wolf, “If any of these bastards want to avoid the fallout they should go on the record.”

According to these conversations [with two Republican Senate staffers], some $800,000 was raised for Cochran by his Senate colleagues after the McDaniel victory in the primary’s first round, largely under the rubric of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. This wasn’t seen as a particularly controversial matter at the time; the NRSC is an organization by and for the Republican members of the Senate and Cochran had raised money for his colleagues in the past, so there would have been no reason to deny him help. “It’s just what you do,” said one of the staffers. “It’s generally accepted that we probably can’t win the Senate if we lose our own people, so when Cochran’s people ask for help raising money, the answer is yes.”

Though there were published reports to the effect—and Barbour was open about it—that Cochran’s runoff strategy was to “expand the electorate” by seeking Democratic votes in a Republican primary, there wasn’t a lot of attention paid to where the funds being raised would go. And moreover, when Cochran lost a close race to McDaniel in the first round, there was a general assumption that his goose was cooked. “Nobody thought he’d win regardless of what he did,” said the staffer. “If you’re an incumbent and you’re behind a challenger that close to avoiding a runoff, you’re usually behind the eight-ball.”

As such, the staffers say, it wasn’t until Wednesday, when the fallout began to descend, that Cochran’s tactics became an issue. And now, several senators are more than a little uneasy with those tactics, which they feel responsible for since they raised money for Cochran.

AmSpec offers no names but says there’s “soul-searching” going on among “the Senate’s more outspoken conservatives” for not doing more to help McDaniel when they had the chance. *cough* (Rand Paul, of course, seems to think it was just awesome that Cochran won his party’s nomination with votes from the other party.) Was this, though, as Mollie Hemingway thinks, ultimately a pyrrhic victory for the GOP establishment? Before you say yes, tell me what you’re willing to do to punish the party for kitchen-sinking a guy who not only received the most votes in the first round of the primary but who, by wide consensus, won more Republican votes in the runoff too? Withholding donations is fine, but don’t kid yourselves: Money’s the one thing that GOP incumbents and the NRSC don’t want for. If they lose $10 million from the base in boycotted contributions, Sheldon Adelson can make it up for them in one check to the right Super PAC.

Are you willing to go this far?

Should the Republican establishment in Washington get away with tarring its own voters as racists? Should the Republican establishment in Washington get away with comparing its own base to Klansmen?

If there is no penalty for doing so, they will keep doing it. If there is no consequence, they will attack their own base to preserve their power. They will learn no lesson. In fact, some of you may want to donate to Travis Childers, Thad Cochran’s Democrat opponent. I cannot say that I blame you.

Cochran will now put the highest bidders first. The GOP will carry out this tactic of calling you racist klansmen Nazis everywhere it works. I would like to see the GOP get the majority and oust Harry Reid as leader. But I understand if you think Mississippi can still be sacrificed.

All true. If Cochran trounces Childers in the general election, the lesson learned by Republican incumbents will be that there’s no cost to beating conservative challengers by any means necessary. You guys will always turn out for them in November on the theory that the Democrat is worse, no matter how nasty to you they are in the primary, so they might as well be as nasty as they like. The question is, is the Democrat worse this time? He may be worse than Cochran on policy, but is he worse than the filthy patronage system that supports Cochran and which he supports in turn? That’s what you’re voting for, whether you like it or not, if you vote for Thad.

There are risks here. Electing Childers could give the Democrats the 50th Senate seat they need in the fall to preserve their majority. (Biden would cast the deciding vote in case of 50/50 ties, of course.) That’s not a big risk on legislation given that Republicans will control the House but it’s a huge risk on Supreme Court nominations, if/when Harry Reid ends up nuking the filibuster and allowing confirmation by simple majority vote. If O knows he can get a nominee through with just 51 votes, he’ll feel safer nominating someone who’s further left. Also, the more seats you hand to Democrats now, the better position they’ll be in come 2016, when they’re expected to clean up in battleground states. Sean Trende thinks there’s even a (small) chance that Democrats will win a filibuster-proof majority. If you sacrifice Mississippi now, you’re making that marginally more likely.

The counterargument is simple, though: If not now, when? The GOP might do well enough in the fall to retake the Senate even if they lose Mississippi. If they don’t retake it, that’s not a disaster — this is, by Nate Silver’s estimate, the “least important election in years” because control of the upper chamber matters so little. The GOP will have more leverage over Court confirmations if they have a majority, but who knows if there’ll even be a vacancy on the Court? And gridlock on legislation is a fait accompli given Obama’s standoff with the Republican House regardless of what the Senate does. If you’re unwilling to risk a protest vote for a Democrat after the grotesque spectacle of a group of GOP cronies using liberal votes to prop up an elderly man whose heart isn’t in it anymore, you’ll never be willing. And if you’re unwilling, maybe it’s time to stop complaining about Cochran and cronyism and the rest of it and accept that this is who we are and who we’re going to be.


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Source from: hotair

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Open thread: Cochrandämmerung; Update: Cochran wins? Update: McDaniel closing; Update: AP calls it for Cochran

Openthread:Cochrandämmerung;Update:Cochranwins?

Open thread: Cochrandämmerung; Update: Cochran wins? Update: McDaniel closing; Update: AP calls it for Cochran

posted at 7:21 pm on June 24, 2014 by Allahpundit

McConnell versus Bevin was supposed to be the big establishment/tea party war this year but McConnell turned it into a rout weeks before election day. Brat versus Cantor ended up being a rout for the tea party but that result caught everyone by surprise, including tea partiers. Tonight’s the first and last campaign of the season where both sides have gone all in — the 2008 GOP ticket is on opposite sides — and the outcome’s in doubt as voters go to the polls. If McDaniel wins, it’ll be just the third time a Republican incumbent’s been bounced in a primary since 2009. If Cochran wins, it’ll be … depressing.

If you need a quickie primer on this race, take three minutes to sift through last night’s Quotes of the Day. Senate Republicans have ante’d up for Cochran knowing that a loss makes it more likely that they’ll be primaried too. Most polls show McDaniel ahead, two of them by eight points or more, but (a) none of those polls was taken by a major nonpartisan pollster and (b) Cochran’s last-ditch strategy involves turning out Democrats, an X factor that wouldn’t show up in surveys of the GOP electorate in Mississippi. So long as you didn’t vote in the Democratic primary earlier this month, you’re eligible to vote in tonight’s GOP runoff — regardless of party registration. That’s why Cochran’s campaign, backed by the GOP establishment inside and outside of Mississippi, has doubled down on calling McDaniel an “extremist.” Most people thought they’d take it easy on McD in the runoff for fear of badly wounding a guy whom they’ll probably be stuck with as their nominee. Instead, Cochran went scorched-earth on him, hoping to convince Dems (especially black Democrats) that McDaniel represents racist tea partiers who’d surely choke off the federal spending that the state’s subsisted on for decades. Harry Enten:

Cochran has made a concerted effort to reach out to African-Americans, who make up 37 percent of Mississippi’s population, although usually less than 5 percent of Republican primary voters.

In most other states, Cochran’s effort might seem odd. Why would Democratic-leaning voters want to choose the Republican candidate who hasn’t won less than 60 percent of the vote in any of his five previous re-election campaigns? Because the chances of a Democratic victory in the fall are slim, no matter whom Republicans nominate. Mississippi’s electorate is inelastic. As I have previously noted, 80 percent of white voters in the state are likely to vote Republican. And because whites make up the majority of voters, Democrats have a narrow path to victory.

Cochran is hoping that black voters recognize this and show up at the polls. If they do, it will be most obvious in Holmes County (to the north of the capital city of Jackson) and Claiborne and Jefferson counties (which are to the southwest).

Obvious strategic dilemma for Dems: Would your nominee stand a real chance against McDaniel in the fall, or are you doomed to lose in a state this red and therefore are better off losing to Cochran? Some black pastors have settled on the latter view. The obvious strategic dilemma for Republicans is what happens to turnout in the fall after a race this nasty, especially if Cochran ends up winning on the strength of Democratic support. Would tea partiers stay home rather than vote for a nominee chosen by the other party? Would Cochran voters stay home if McDaniel ends up winning because they refuse to support an “extremist”? The Democratic nominee in Mississippi this year is an underdog but not a pushover. And an awful lot of money’s been spent making hard feelings in the losing camp tonight even harder.

Polls close in Mississippi at 8 p.m. ET. You can follow results at RCP, Politico, or my election site of choice, Ace’s Decision Desk. The only other major race tonight is in New York, where another congressional dinosaur’s resisting extinction caused by demographic shifts in his district. Rangel’s been in the House since 1971; he just turned 84 years old; there’s zero chance he’ll be back in the majority and chairing a committee in the near future. You would think he’d be ready for retirement, but lifers like him and Cochran cling to their seats out of pride and because influential friends don’t want to have their influence diminished, not because there’s any legislative work that they feel is unfinished. It’s grotesque, but that’s American democracy for you until we get our act together on term limits. The polls in New York close at 9 p.m. ET.

Update: Prediction:

Update: Hmmmm.

Update: Will it really be over tonight?

Update: Still very early at 9 p.m. ET, but the Decision Desk sees hope for the incumbent:

Also this:

Update: I thought the chances of Dems turning out in numbers for Cochran were low, but maybe not:

McDaniel’s strongest counties, including and especially Jones, haven’t come in yet so he’ll gain on Cochran soon. But by how much?

Update: A little good news for the challenger:

Update: It’s Cochran’s night — so far.

Update: Keep hope alive, McDaniel fans:

Update: Jones County will need to come up very big for McDaniel:

Update: Two-thirds of Jones County is now in. McDaniel leads big, but not big enough:

Update: Food for thought:

Update: The Decision Desk has seen enough:

Let’s see how long it takes MSM outlets to follow suit.

Update: Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report follows suit:

Update: Wow:

Update: Still a glimmer of hope for McD fans?

Update: Now Wasserman’s having second thoughts:

Update: Down to the wire:

Amazingly, turnout tonight has surpassed turnout in the first primary election three weeks ago. That’s how hot this race was.

Update: McDaniel’s close, but maybe not close enough:

Update: Running out of time…

Update: The AP throws in the towel:

Three cheers for earmarks!

Update: Double wow — Cochran’s Democratic strategy worked like a charm:

Does this mean red-state Dems like Landrieu and Pryor have a better shot than everyone thinks?


Related Posts:

Source from: hotair

Open thread: Cochrandämmerung; Update: Cochran wins? Update: McDaniel closing

Openthread:Cochrandämmerung;Update:Cochranwins?

Open thread: Cochrandämmerung; Update: Cochran wins? Update: McDaniel closing

posted at 7:21 pm on June 24, 2014 by Allahpundit

McConnell versus Bevin was supposed to be the big establishment/tea party war this year but McConnell turned it into a rout weeks before election day. Brat versus Cantor ended up being a rout for the tea party but that result caught everyone by surprise, including tea partiers. Tonight’s the first and last campaign of the season where both sides have gone all in — the 2008 GOP ticket is on opposite sides — and the outcome’s in doubt as voters go to the polls. If McDaniel wins, it’ll be just the third time a Republican incumbent’s been bounced in a primary since 2009. If Cochran wins, it’ll be … depressing.

If you need a quickie primer on this race, take three minutes to sift through last night’s Quotes of the Day. Senate Republicans have ante’d up for Cochran knowing that a loss makes it more likely that they’ll be primaried too. Most polls show McDaniel ahead, two of them by eight points or more, but (a) none of those polls was taken by a major nonpartisan pollster and (b) Cochran’s last-ditch strategy involves turning out Democrats, an X factor that wouldn’t show up in surveys of the GOP electorate in Mississippi. So long as you didn’t vote in the Democratic primary earlier this month, you’re eligible to vote in tonight’s GOP runoff — regardless of party registration. That’s why Cochran’s campaign, backed by the GOP establishment inside and outside of Mississippi, has doubled down on calling McDaniel an “extremist.” Most people thought they’d take it easy on McD in the runoff for fear of badly wounding a guy whom they’ll probably be stuck with as their nominee. Instead, Cochran went scorched-earth on him, hoping to convince Dems (especially black Democrats) that McDaniel represents racist tea partiers who’d surely choke off the federal spending that the state’s subsisted on for decades. Harry Enten:

Cochran has made a concerted effort to reach out to African-Americans, who make up 37 percent of Mississippi’s population, although usually less than 5 percent of Republican primary voters.

In most other states, Cochran’s effort might seem odd. Why would Democratic-leaning voters want to choose the Republican candidate who hasn’t won less than 60 percent of the vote in any of his five previous re-election campaigns? Because the chances of a Democratic victory in the fall are slim, no matter whom Republicans nominate. Mississippi’s electorate is inelastic. As I have previously noted, 80 percent of white voters in the state are likely to vote Republican. And because whites make up the majority of voters, Democrats have a narrow path to victory.

Cochran is hoping that black voters recognize this and show up at the polls. If they do, it will be most obvious in Holmes County (to the north of the capital city of Jackson) and Claiborne and Jefferson counties (which are to the southwest).

Obvious strategic dilemma for Dems: Would your nominee stand a real chance against McDaniel in the fall, or are you doomed to lose in a state this red and therefore are better off losing to Cochran? Some black pastors have settled on the latter view. The obvious strategic dilemma for Republicans is what happens to turnout in the fall after a race this nasty, especially if Cochran ends up winning on the strength of Democratic support. Would tea partiers stay home rather than vote for a nominee chosen by the other party? Would Cochran voters stay home if McDaniel ends up winning because they refuse to support an “extremist”? The Democratic nominee in Mississippi this year is an underdog but not a pushover. And an awful lot of money’s been spent making hard feelings in the losing camp tonight even harder.

Polls close in Mississippi at 8 p.m. ET. You can follow results at RCP, Politico, or my election site of choice, Ace’s Decision Desk. The only other major race tonight is in New York, where another congressional dinosaur’s resisting extinction caused by demographic shifts in his district. Rangel’s been in the House since 1971; he just turned 84 years old; there’s zero chance he’ll be back in the majority and chairing a committee in the near future. You would think he’d be ready for retirement, but lifers like him and Cochran cling to their seats out of pride and because influential friends don’t want to have their influence diminished, not because there’s any legislative work that they feel is unfinished. It’s grotesque, but that’s American democracy for you until we get our act together on term limits. The polls in New York close at 9 p.m. ET.

Update: Prediction:

Update: Hmmmm.

Update: Will it really be over tonight?

Update: Still very early at 9 p.m. ET, but the Decision Desk sees hope for the incumbent:

Also this:

Update: I thought the chances of Dems turning out in numbers for Cochran were low, but maybe not:

McDaniel’s strongest counties, including and especially Jones, haven’t come in yet so he’ll gain on Cochran soon. But by how much?

Update: A little good news for the challenger:

Update: It’s Cochran’s night — so far.

Update: Keep hope alive, McDaniel fans:

Update: Jones County will need to come up very big for McDaniel:

Update: Two-thirds of Jones County is now in. McDaniel leads big, but not big enough:

Update: Food for thought:

Update: The Decision Desk has seen enough:

Let’s see how long it takes MSM outlets to follow suit.

Update: Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report follows suit:

Update: Wow:

Update: Still a glimmer of hope for McD fans?

Update: Now Wasserman’s having second thoughts:

Update: Down to the wire:

Amazingly, turnout tonight has surpassed turnout in the first primary election three weeks ago. That’s how hot this race was.

Update: McDaniel’s close, but maybe not close enough:


Related Posts:

Source from: hotair

Open thread: Cochrandämmerung

Openthread:Cochrandämmerung postedat7:21

Open thread: Cochrandämmerung

posted at 7:21 pm on June 24, 2014 by Allahpundit

McConnell versus Bevin was supposed to be the big establishment/tea party war this year but McConnell turned it into a rout weeks before election day. Brat versus Cantor ended up being a rout for the tea party but that result caught everyone by surprise, including tea partiers. Tonight’s the first and last campaign of the season where both sides have gone all in — the 2008 GOP ticket is on opposite sides — and the outcome’s in doubt as voters go to the polls. If McDaniel wins, it’ll be just the third time a Republican incumbent’s been bounced in a primary since 2009. If Cochran wins, it’ll be … depressing.

If you need a quickie primer on this race, take three minutes to sift through last night’s Quotes of the Day. Senate Republicans have ante’d up for Cochran knowing that a loss makes it more likely that they’ll be primaried too. Most polls show McDaniel ahead, two of them by eight points or more, but (a) none of those polls was taken by a major nonpartisan pollster and (b) Cochran’s last-ditch strategy involves turning out Democrats, an X factor that wouldn’t show up in surveys of the GOP electorate in Mississippi. So long as you didn’t vote in the Democratic primary earlier this month, you’re eligible to vote in tonight’s GOP runoff — regardless of party registration. That’s why Cochran’s campaign, backed by the GOP establishment inside and outside of Mississippi, has doubled down on calling McDaniel an “extremist.” Most people thought they’d take it easy on McD in the runoff for fear of badly wounding a guy whom they’ll probably be stuck with as their nominee. Instead, Cochran went scorched-earth on him, hoping to convince Dems (especially black Democrats) that McDaniel represents racist tea partiers who’d surely choke off the federal spending that the state’s subsisted on for decades. Harry Enten:

Cochran has made a concerted effort to reach out to African-Americans, who make up 37 percent of Mississippi’s population, although usually less than 5 percent of Republican primary voters.

In most other states, Cochran’s effort might seem odd. Why would Democratic-leaning voters want to choose the Republican candidate who hasn’t won less than 60 percent of the vote in any of his five previous re-election campaigns? Because the chances of a Democratic victory in the fall are slim, no matter whom Republicans nominate. Mississippi’s electorate is inelastic. As I have previously noted, 80 percent of white voters in the state are likely to vote Republican. And because whites make up the majority of voters, Democrats have a narrow path to victory.

Cochran is hoping that black voters recognize this and show up at the polls. If they do, it will be most obvious in Holmes County (to the north of the capital city of Jackson) and Claiborne and Jefferson counties (which are to the southwest).

Obvious strategic dilemma for Dems: Would your nominee stand a real chance against McDaniel in the fall, or are you doomed to lose in a state this red and therefore are better off losing to Cochran? Some black pastors have settled on the latter view. The obvious strategic dilemma for Republicans is what happens to turnout in the fall after a race this nasty, especially if Cochran ends up winning on the strength of Democratic support. Would tea partiers stay home rather than vote for a nominee chosen by the other party? Would Cochran voters stay home if McDaniel ends up winning because they refuse to support an “extremist”? The Democratic nominee in Mississippi this year is an underdog but not a pushover. And an awful lot of money’s been spent making hard feelings in the losing camp tonight even harder.

Polls close in Mississippi at 8 p.m. ET. You can follow results at RCP, Politico, or my election site of choice, Ace’s Decision Desk. The only other major race tonight is in New York, where another congressional dinosaur’s resisting extinction caused by demographic shifts in his district. Rangel’s been in the House since 1971; he just turned 84 years old; there’s zero chance he’ll be back in the majority and chairing a committee in the near future. You would think he’d be ready for retirement, but lifers like him and Cochran cling to their seats out of pride and because influential friends don’t want to have their influence diminished, not because there’s any legislative work that they feel is unfinished. It’s grotesque, but that’s American democracy for you until we get our act together on term limits. The polls in New York close at 9 p.m. ET.

Update: Prediction:

Update: Hmmmm.


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Thursday, June 19, 2014

Is the new celebrity endorsement for Thad Cochran a Hail Mary?

IsthenewcelebrityendorsementforThadCochran

Is the new celebrity endorsement for Thad Cochran a Hail Mary?

posted at 9:21 am on June 19, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Readers have been on pins and needles over the Mississippi GOP primary fight between incumbent US Senator Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel. The race has produced a lot of questions — about McDaniel’s temperament, Cochran’s abilities, the Tea Party versus the Establishment, and even which side plays the dirtier tricks. But one question in particular has gone unanswered:

Wait no more, my friends. Behold the latest campaign ad running in the final days of the runoff, courtesy of the US Chamber of Commerce:

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is bringing in a big-time closer for the Mississippi Senate race: NFL legend Brett Favre.

Favre, a Gulfport native who has coached football at Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, appears in a new Chamber ad praising Cochran as a “proven and respected leader” who can deliver education funding for Mississippi. …

The former Green Bay Packers quarterback may be one of the few voices and faces that can stand out on Mississippi’s cluttered airwaves in the final days of Cochran’s nomination fight against state Sen. Chris McDaniel. The two are competing in a June 24 runoff after they deadlocked in the first round of voting earlier this month.

That’s probably not a bad calculation. Favre’s sudden involvement in a political campaign will make news in Mississippi and nationwide, and might focus a little more outside money into the final stretch. But why didn’t the Chamber of Commerce get Favre involved in the first round of the primary? Cochran didn’t lose by much, and the impact that the Chamber obviously hopes to get with this ad might have prevented the need for the runoff in the first place. Bringing out Favre now looks a bit like desperation — a Hail Mary, if you will. But Hail Marys occasionally connect.

On the other hand, while Favre might be a favorite son in Mississippi, that’s not necessarily equivalent to a trusted voice in politics. It also might prompt a couple of uncomfortable parallels:

Favre has the Iron Man record in the NFL, with 321 consecutive starts with the Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, and Minnesota Vikings. Even when he was playing, people questioned whether he was taking that record too seriously, and the Packers finally had to let him go to get Aaron Rodgers on the field. Thad Cochran has a 36-year run in the Senate on the line, with an additional five-plus years from his time in the House for a 41-year run in Washington DC. Baseball Crank’s quip about hanging it up is a point that some Mississippians will take to heart next Tuesday, and Favre’s appearance might not convince them otherwise.


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Wednesday, June 4, 2014

GOP establishment wonders: Is it time to abandon Thad Cochran?

GOPestablishmentwonders:Isittimetoabandon

GOP establishment wonders: Is it time to abandon Thad Cochran?

posted at 6:41 pm on June 4, 2014 by Allahpundit

Realistically, Cochran’s got maybe a 10 percent chance of winning the runoff. McDaniel’s base is excited to knock off the incumbent and outside groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund are prepared to keep pumping in money to send a conservative to the Senate. Cochran’s base, which includes lots of casual voters who favor him for name-recognition reasons alone, probably can’t be bothered to trudge to the polls for the second time in three weeks. That’s why insurgent candidates almost always pull the upset once they make it to a runoff. The only way to get Cochran voters back out there on June 24th is for his allies to spend boatloads more money tearing down McDaniel and promoting Cochran. And if it doesn’t work and McDaniel wins the runoff anyway, then you’ve spent three more weeks tearing your party’s new nominee apart for no reason.

The NRSC insists it’s “all in” for Cochran, but don’t kid yourself. They’re saying that as a precaution, until Team Establishment can huddle and come to a decision. They may end up going in again for Cochran, but rest assured, it won’t be “all in.” And some outfits, like Karl Rove’s group American Crossroads, won’t go in at all.

“The Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund will bankrupt themselves just to make their point. The NRSC, the chamber don’t have that luxury—they’re looking at a Republican majority,” one pro-Cochran strategist said…

American Crossroads, for one, announced Wednesday afternoon that it wouldn’t get involved in the contentious runoff. “We have completed our work on Senate primaries this cycle … this is not our fight,” spokesman Paul Lindsay said. Crossroads didn’t air ads in the primary, but it donated $120,000 to the pro-Cochran super PAC Mississippi Conservatives, according to Henry Barbour, the nephew of former Gov. Haley Barbour, who runs the group.

Cochran faces disadvantages in the runoff that range from his lethargic campaign effort to the likelihood of a smaller, more-conservative turnout in three weeks and the prohibition on Democratic crossover voters participating in the election.

Establishment groups are reportedly meeting today to decide how to play it. At a minimum, it sounds like they’re going to stop trying to tie McDaniel to that repellent invasion of Mrs. Cochran’s privacy in her nursing home, since obviously they don’t want to hurt the likely nominee at this point any more than they have to. The campaign from here on out will be strictly (or mostly) pro-Cochran, not anti-McD. But look: Given the long odds and the fact that Cochran palpably didn’t want to run this race in the first place, isn’t backing off and letting the guy magnanimously concede the decent thing to do at this point? C’mon.

Cochran created his own problems, too, frustrating national Republicans last year by wringing his hands over whether to retire and surprising many in the Republican establishment when he announced in late December, two months after McDaniel announced his campaign, that he would seek reelection to a seventh term.

“I don’t think Cochran was as prepared for this challenge as other incumbents who have dealt with similar challenges. He didn’t have a lot of money or a real campaign infrastructure,” says a strategist for the McDaniel campaign. Mississippi heavyweights such as former governor Haley Barbour and his sons, Austin and Henry; the state’s current governor, Phil Bryant; and former Senate majority leader Trent Lott all stepped in to boost Cochran.

Cochran supporters worked to turn out Democratic voters, placing an ad in a Jackson-based newspaper with a largely African-American readership. (That strategy is limited in the next three weeks because Mississippi election law forbids anybody who voted in Tuesday’s Democratic primary from voting in the runoff election of the opposite party.) In the end, though, even his strongest backers were expressing reservations.

Sure sounds to me like he wanted to retire, was fully prepared to, but then was begged by establishment GOPers both inside and outside of Mississippi after the shutdown in October to hang on just a bit longer in the name of crushing the tea-party challenge back home. For all his weaknesses on the stump, running a long-time incumbent like Cochran again was obviously the best play for pro-pork, pro-business-lobby Republicans to thwart a guy who’s positioning himself as another “defund”-style Cruz conservative. They propped Cochran up with an on-the-fly reelection campaign, he played along, and together they almost pulled it off. Almost. Why not pat the guy on the back for pouring 40 years’ worth of federal dollars into the trough in Mississippi and let him play golf instead of running him around for another month? Especially since, if they’re not “all in” against McDaniel, Cochran’s odds of winning are even smaller than everyone expects.

In lieu of an exit question, read Philip Klein on why the tea party’s already won in Mississippi regardless of what happens in the runoff. The goal here, always, is to pressure Republicans in Congress into voting a more conservative line. The best way to do that is to elect conservatives, but merely scaring the shinola out of an incumbent in a losing effort is enough to make the rest of the caucus sit up and take notice.


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