Showing posts with label nomination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nomination. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz: Mitt Romney will run in 2016 — and he’ll win

GOPRep.JasonChaffetz:MittRomneywillrun

GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz: Mitt Romney will run in 2016 — and he’ll win

posted at 4:01 pm on July 8, 2014 by Allahpundit

Via Mediaite, I don’t deny that I enjoy trolling the HA faithful with stories about (groan) yet another Romney campaign, but is it trolling or is it news when the rumor du jour’s coming from a Republican congressman? And Chaffetz is no random House member: Romney endorsed him when he first ran for Congress in Utah in 2008 and Chaffetz returned the favor when Romney ran for president in 2011, even though Chaffetz had been the gubernatorial campaign manager for Romney rival Jon Huntsman. He went on to server as a surrogate for Mitt during media hits after some of the primary debates in 2012. If there’s anyone on the Hill who *might* have an inside track into Romney’s thinking, it’s him.

And yet … no one seriously believes Romney’s running, right? In which case, what’s Chaffetz’s angle here? Gotta be one of two things, I think. One: Mitt’s inner circle is worried that Jeb Bush won’t run and that Christie is now too damaged to hold off a conservative in the primaries, so they’re trying to pressure him into reconsidering. Chaffetz’s shpiel here is part of the wider media effort lately by Team Romney to encourage him by showing him that the public might be more receptive to Romney 3.0 than Mitt thinks. Two: Chaffetz knows full well this is BS but he’s pushing it anyway for his own interests, i.e. making sure that Romney’s on his side when he eventually runs for Senate. Chaffetz nearly primaried Orrin Hatch two years ago, remember; ultimately he declined, but Hatch just turned 80 and may well retire when his term is up in 2018. Chaffetz will be just 51 then and eager to fill the vacancy. Utah’s Republican field could be crowded and nasty — Dan Lilijenquist, Hatch’s last challenger, and even Chaffetz’s old boss Huntsman could be eyeing Hatch’s seat — so, assuming one of Romney’s own sons doesn’t run, competition for Mitt’s endorsement and fundraising will be stiff. Maybe Chaffetz is just keeping his ducks in a row here.

Incidentally, since we’re on the subject, what would the Romney 3.0 campaign narrative even look like? Mitt, (in)famously, is a creature of reinvention: When he ran for Senate against Ted Kennedy, he was a Massachusetts moderate; when he ran for president in 2008, he was a staunch social conservative; when he ran in 2012, he was an economy-healing technocrat. I assume he’d stick with the last message for 2016, but that’s complicated by the fact that (a) the economy will probably be better than it was in 2012, which bodes ill for a guy whose economic message didn’t work the last time, and (b) Democrats will be running against income inequality, which makes Mr. “47 Percent” uniquely poorly suited to parry their attacks. So what does he run as, then? As a foreign-policy candidate? Apart from 2004, which was sui generis because it followed 9/11, when was the last time someone won the presidency running on foreign policy?


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Friday, May 16, 2014

Allen West on 2016: God may be getting me ready for something else

AllenWeston2016:Godmaybegetting

Allen West on 2016: God may be getting me ready for something else

posted at 2:01 pm on May 16, 2014 by Allahpundit

Ben Carson said something similar about his own calling to run for office. Maybe a crowded field is divinely ordained.

Dave Weigel has the quote:

The first question to West, after a long ovation, was whether he’d run for another office. He’d actually speculated about running for president one day earlier, on Ben Shapiro’s radio show, and the topic had come up in a VIP reception before the dinner.

“I know there are ministers here, so I want to get this right. It says in Proverbs Ch. 3, verses 5-6: Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways submit to him, and he will make your paths straight. I could sit around here saying what I think I want to do, but my mommy and daddy taught me that you write those plans in pencil and dear God will erase them. I never thought I’d be standing here in Floyd County talking to you, but I am. I will always be a servant to this great nation, and any way that God believes I can serve America, I will. We will see what he has in store for me, because I think he maybe is getting me ready for something else.”

That earned West another ovation.

After listening to the key bit from the Shapiro interview yesterday (embedded below), it sounded to me like West isn’t seriously thinking of running. He admitted that he was considering it but then stressed that that doesn’t mean he’s going to do it. My takeaway was that he’s telling his supporters that he’s open to it in the interest of not disappointing them before he has to, but when push comes to shove, he’s not going to run. Now, after hearing how the crowd reacted to his “ready for something else” comment in Weigel’s piece, I’m not sure. Or have we misinterpreted what he meant? (I.e. “something else” besides the presidential campaign?)

If West does jump in, though, who’s the main beneficiary? The more crowded the conservative side of the field gets, the easier it’ll be for a strong centrist candidate in the Romney mold to compete and maybe even win in Iowa. The establishment dream scenario is for every big tea-party name in America to run while the center consolidates around a single champion, ensuring that righties split every which way while the centrist soars to 35-40 percent right off the bat. Here’s a tidbit from Myra Adams about consolidation efforts already afoot:

So things don’t look so encouraging for Rubio. But he may not be seriously eyeing a White House run anyway: A high-ranking GOP party official who asked that his name be withheld told me on Monday that Jeb Bush’s people have just met with Rubio’s people and a 2016 deal was struck. If Jeb runs for president then Rubio would drop out—and “Jeb is running,” according to my well-placed source. (Alert the media!)

The pressure from the donor class on Rubio and Christie not to run if Jeb does will be tremendous, precisely because they don’t want their base splitting. If righties seriously want to thwart Bush 3.0 (or Christie/Rubio 1.0), they should do something similar and coalesce around a conservative champion like Ted Cruz as early as possible. As it is, having a rock-ribbed righty like West jump in will siphon off votes from Cruz and the social-con candidates, which means that the early primaries will be more interesting and the rest of the race will be … less so. Oh well. We’re probably all going to settle on Scott Walker in the end anyway.


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Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Obama judicial nomination provokes rising opposition … from Democrats

Obamajudicialnominationprovokesrisingopposition…from

Obama judicial nomination provokes rising opposition … from Democrats

posted at 10:41 am on May 14, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

To steal a line from Instapundit, they told me that if I voted for Mitt Romney, I’d get federal judges who opposed abortion, same-sex marriage, and who’d be waving Confederate flags. And they’d be right! A justice on a Georgia appellate court ran into a buzzsaw of Democratic criticism in the Senate Judiciary Committee yesterday, with Democrats like Dianne Feinstein and Al Franken signaling opposition to Michael Boggs’ confirmation:

Democratic senators opposed to one of President Obama’s nominees to serve on a federal court in Georgia sharply questioned the pick Tuesday about his previous statements, votes and court decisions related to abortion rights, gay rights and civil rights.

Michael Boggs is a Georgia state judge tapped by Obama to serve on a U.S. district court in Georgia. The White House has stood by Boggs despite strong opposition from a handful of Democratic senators, members of the Congressional Black Caucus, civil rights leaders, NARAL Pro-Choice America and gay rights groups.

Boggs has served as a state appeals court judge since 2012 and previously served as a state superior court judge. As a state senator from 2000 to 2004, Boggs, a conservative Democrat, supported keeping the Confederate emblem on the Georgia state flag; supported establishing a “Choice Life” license plate that helped fund antiabortion groups; opposed same-sex marriage; and supported a law that would require parents to accompany their daughters to abortion clinics if the daughter is younger than 18.

Boggs’ nomination came from a joint effort between the White House and the two Senators from Georgia, both Republicans, who praised White House counsel Kathryn Ruemmler for her “fair” approach to nominations.  Fairness isn’t really the issue, though, so much as research. Boggs voted twice to keep the Confederate flag as the state flag of Georgia while in the legislature, which may sell well in Georgia but hardly plays well in Washington DC. When pressed on that issue, Boggs claimed that he’d changed his position, and hinted he’d also done so on same-sex marriage, but that’s hardly a confidence-builder for Democrats on the committee who have to defend this vote to their own home-state voters.

CNN’s John King and his panel noted the disconnect today. Bloomberg’s Julianna Goldman calls it emblematic of Barack Obama’s relationship with his progressive base:

It looks more emblematic of the mail-it-in presidency. All of these issues should have been vetted with the Democrats on Judiciary long before Boggs’ appearance yesterday. Franken accused Boggs of lying about his record in an open hearing, which indicates that the White House didn’t bother with laying groundwork for a nominee they had to know would be problematic … if they’d vetted him at all. Given the record of this administration on research and vetting, I’m guessing they stopped looking at Boggs once they saw he was a Democrat.

The White House told Goldman that they expect the Republicans to line up behind Boggs, and only need a couple of Democrats. We’ll see how anxious the GOP is to rescue Obama from his own embarrassment.


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Monday, May 5, 2014

Sen. Paul continues the fight on drone killings

Sen.Paulcontinuesthefightondronekillings

Sen. Paul continues the fight on drone killings

posted at 10:01 am on May 5, 2014 by Gabriel Malor

Sen. Paul’s drone filibuster last year made him the go-to presumptive candidate for civil liberties-emphasizing Republicans. The smart thing about that filibuster was that he wasn’t asking for the impossible; he sought a small, but significant disclosure from President Obama that he did not have the authority to drone-kill an American citizen in the United States.

This week, Sen. Paul continues that smart strategy:

Paul, the junior Republican senator from Kentucky, has informed Reid he will object to David Barron’s nomination to the 1st Circuit Court of Appeals unless the Justice Department makes public the memos he authored justifying the killing of an American citizen in Yemen.

The American Civil Liberties Union supports Paul’s objection, giving some Democratic lawmakers extra incentive to support a delay to Barron’s nomination, which could come to the floor in the next two weeks.

Barron, formerly a lawyer in the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, penned at least one secret legal memo approving the Sept. 2011 drone strike that killed Anwar al-Awlaki, a radical Muslim cleric whom intelligence officials accused of planning terrorist attacks against the United States.

The attack also killed another American citizen, Samir Khan, the creator of an online magazine catering to jihadists.

Put simply: no memo, no vote.

It is not an outrageous ask for Paul considering that the Second Circuit has already ordered Justice to release portions of the memos at issue. The court’s reasoning is noteworthy, by the way: “a unanimous three-judge panel said the government waived its right to secrecy by making repeated public statements justifying targeted killings.” In other words, if Obama wants to brag about drone killing, he’s going to have to explain himself when asked for legal justification.

Paul is walking a fine line in the run up to 2016.  He’s strong on drone killing, but weak on Iran. He endorsed Sen. Collins on the one hand, but on the other campaigns for Greg Brannon. The big thing Paul has going for him is that, much like his father, he seems to motivate supporters who would otherwise throw up their hands and walk away. 


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Thursday, May 1, 2014

Rubio’s 2016 strategy: Become everyone’s second choice

Rubio’s2016strategy:Becomeeveryone’ssecondchoice

Rubio’s 2016 strategy: Become everyone’s second choice

posted at 9:01 pm on May 1, 2014 by Allahpundit

That headline sounds like a joke but I think this is smart strategic thinking. Given the cards he has to play, this is how he should play them.

The former Florida House speaker, just four months into his fourth year in Congress, has avoided travel to the early primary states. He isn’t busy jockeying for position. Rather, he has quietly focused on building a political organization that would serve as the basis for a presidential campaign, burnishing his policy and legislative resume, and honing the Image of the sort of consensus Republican who historically has captured the GOP nomination.

Rubio’s approach to 2016 has been crafted with one goal: To become the first choice of “many” GOP primary voters and the second choice of “even more.” His advisers envision assembling a solid base of support that prefers Rubio above all others, while attracting the admiration, or at least imprimatur of acceptability, of an even larger group that would gravitate to him if their first choice falls short…

[Rubio's steering] Committee members have committed only to raising money for Rubio’s 2016 Senate re-election and Reclaim America, his political action committee. But in interviews with a half dozen members, they said a Rubio presidential bid is appealing because he is a mainstream Republican capable of uniting the party and winning the general election. Rubio might be called a Tea Partier because of his staunchly conservative record and because he won his Senate seat by challenging a sitting Republican governor, but they contend the label is a misnomer.

I’ve always thought Rubio’s support of immigration reform last year was part of a calculated gamble to position himself for a presidential run. (Which is not to suggest that he didn’t support the bill on the merits. I’m sure he did, contrary to pretty much everything he said about immigration as a candidate in 2010.) He knew that if he spent six years in the Senate as a pure red-meat Ted-Cruz-style tea partier, the GOP establishment would have written him off as a conservative ideologue who could never be trusted with the party’s nomination. That’s a bad place to be for an aspiring pol given the establishment’s track record in presidential primaries. So he took a chance. He decided to try to impress the donor class by quarterbacking the Senate’s big amnesty push, specifically by selling the bill to the reluctant right. If he had pulled it off and gotten tea partiers onboard, he’d be the prohibitive favorite for the nomination, the guy who worked political magic in converting right-wingers to the cause of amnesty. He rolled the dice on that and lost — but only with righties, not with the establishment. They were grateful for the effort, of course, and now had reason to see Rubio as something more than just a Cruz-type dogmatist. (See the quote in the excerpt above about his own steering committee rejecting the “tea party” label.) Meanwhile, it wasn’t an outlandishly crazy bet for Rubio to think he could have brought conservatives onboard. The guy got elected to the U.S. Senate in a major state before he turned 40; his retail skills are formidable, to put it mildly. If anyone could have sold the bill to amnesty skeptics, especially while the media was trumpeting the GOP’s washout with Latino voters in the 2012 election, it’s him.

Didn’t work, though, so now he’s in a strange position electorally. He’s liked by the establishment, although not quite as much as Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, and disliked by the base — although not quite as much as Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. He’s not going to beat Jeb or Christie straight up in a battle for the establishment and he’s not going to beat Ted Cruz or Rand Paul straight up in a battle for the right. (Actually, he might have a shot against Paul depending upon how big of an issue Paul’s foreign policy views become on the right.) So he’s maneuvering himself as a compromise candidate: If Bush or Christie beats Cruz and Paul early, the Cruz/Paul fans *might* flock to Rubio as a guy whom, while not ideal, can at least stop the greater RINO. If the opposite happens, with Cruz or Paul squelching Bush and Christie early, the establishment might swing around to Rubio as a guy whom, while not their first choice, can at least potentially stop the tea-party monster. In other words, Rubio understands his niche in the race — he’s no longer anyone’s frontrunner but he can still be a highly effective “anyone but X” choice to whichever faction is eager to stop Candidate X in the primaries. The trick for him is figuring out how to maintain that niche if/when Scott Walker jumps into the race. Walker is the ultimate 2016 wild card because he’s playing on the same middle ground as Rubio but without a major liability like Rubio has. If you’re not comfortable with either the hardcore RINOs or the hardcore conservatives, a description that fits oodles of “somewhat conservative” casual Republican voters, it’s the guy with executive experience who vanquished the unions, not Rubio, who’s your guy, no?

One thing to watch out for, though. If Jeb doesn’t run, Rubio may transform himself into a full-bore establishment candidate, calculating that he can defeat a weakened Christie head to head for the donor class’s support. You’ll know if he starts talking up immigration reform again that that’s the way he’s going. Exit question: Pretend that Rubio had never supported the Gang of Eight bill and was still a conservative in good standing with the base. Where would he rank now compared to Paul and Cruz in the battle for the tea-party vote in 2016?


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Thursday, April 24, 2014

Are you ready for Bush/Paul 2016?

AreyoureadyforBush/Paul2016? posted

Are you ready for Bush/Paul 2016?

posted at 11:41 am on April 24, 2014 by Allahpundit

A corollary to yesterday’s post spitballing about what Paul might do if Jeb (or someone else) squashes him in the early primaries. Whatever you think of Rand’s chances at the nomination, says Ramesh Ponnuru, he’s a strong contender for VP. Do the math:

Let’s say the Kentucky legislator makes a strong run — winning some states and coming close in others — but doesn’t win the nomination, a scenario that seems more likely than not. He has something going for him in the veepstakes that other Republican also-rans would not: a constituency that might well defect in large numbers from the party in November.

Assuming Paul loses, the Libertarian Party will have an easier task than usual: It will be able to concentrate its organizing among the people who voted for Paul in the primaries. That could easily amount to enough voters to deny Republicans a victory in the general election. (In other words, the libertarian candidate in this situation would be Ralph Nader in reverse.)

The winning Republican nominee would need Paul to campaign actively for him to prevent this scenario. But why wouldn’t Paul just go home to Kentucky to campaign for his own re-election? His Senate seat will be up in 2016.

Actually, unless Kentucky law changes or Paul wins a court battle declaring it unconstitutional, he’d be barred by statute from running for the Senate once he commits to running for president. That gives him even less incentive to make nice with the GOP nominee and campaign hard on his behalf, which makes the VP scenario even more likely. The eventual nominee, assuming it isn’t Rand himself, has to offer him the veep slot to keep libertarians and pro-Rand tea partiers in the fold. Doesn’t he?

Probably, yeah — although it may be that we end up with a nominee who’s so hostile to Paul and his philosophy that he’d refuse to add him to the ticket on principle, whatever that might mean for November. Christie might fit that bill, Ted Cruz obviously wouldn’t. Bush is an interesting case: He’d rather stay far away from Paulism, I’d guess, but Paul’s “different kind of Republican” brand would be attractive to a guy who’ll be hammered as a dynasty case and retread. If you want to signal to voters that you’re breaking from the GOP’s recent (Bush-heavy) past, Rand Paul’s the man you want to run with. It’d certainly help Bush get a grudging second look from grassroots righties. I think Rand would accept the offer too, despite the howls from hardcore ideologues in his base that he’d sold out and was being exploited by the enemy. Between endorsing Mitch McConnell in the Kentucky Senate primary and taking a more hawkish stand on Russia lately, he’s showed that he’s willing to compromise with the establishment in the name of improving his odds nationally. Serving as VP would give him the ultimate establishment cred and put him in line for the nomination down the road. He’s young by presidential standards. He can wait.

Here’s the X factor: Will establishment hawks and the GOP’s donor class tolerate having Paul on the ticket? If he wins an early primary or two, they’re going to kitchen-sink him with harsh attacks — he hates Israel, he fraternizes with racists, he’d destroy respect for American power in the world even more thoroughly than Obama has, and certainly he wouldn’t stand a chance against Hillary in the general. It’s … not easy to switch in a matter of months from that position to “hey, let’s put him one heartbeat away.” In particular, it’d be odd to go from claiming that Paul is electoral poison as nominee to claiming that it’d be electoral poison not to nominate him for VP for the reason Ponnuru gives (although that argument can, and probably will, be made). Just for example, could someone like McCain endorse a Bush/Paul or Rubio/Paul ticket? Could Christie? Could Sheldon Adelson, on whom the GOP is counting to donate tens of millions of dollars in the general election? Most Republicans would be good soldiers but you only need a small yet influential group of Paul critics to threaten to walk in order to get the nominee to think twice about Rand.

Exit question: Is there some middle-ground solution here, like a cabinet appointment for Paul, that would avoid the VP dilemma? Er, which cabinet position would he be an obvious candidate for?


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Sunday, April 13, 2014

Orrin Hatch and Alexander Hamilton on advice and consent

OrrinHatchandAlexanderHamiltononadviceand

Orrin Hatch and Alexander Hamilton on advice and consent

posted at 12:31 pm on April 13, 2014 by Jazz Shaw

Senator Orrin Hatch has an editorial up this week in which he argues passionately in defense of a strong role for the Senate in the nomination process. In it, he focuses largely on two areas; the filibuster and the blue slip process. (The latter allows the Senators from the home state where a judicial nominee would serve to have a larger voice in the approval process.) It’s a fairly basic argument, in which he mourns the weakening of the filibuster and implores the leadership to not similarly gut the blue slip.

Weakening or eliminating the blue slip process would sweep aside the last remaining check on the president’s judicial appointment power.

Anyone serious about the Senate’s constitutional “advice and consent” role knows how disastrous such a move would be. Sen. Leahy warned in 2003 that the majority was trying to “rewrite Senate history in order to rubberstamp the federal judicial nominees of this White House and that this will cause long-term damage to the Senate and the courts.”

A confirmation process without filibuster or blue slip veto would weaken the collaboration between the president and the Senate, further politicize the confirmation process, and ultimately produce a more politicized federal judiciary.

I sincerely hope that the majority will not continue to sacrifice the good of the Senate and the good of the country simply to serve short-term political interests. I’m glad Chairman Leahy has preserved the blue slip process. It should stay that way.

Neither of these are actually constitutional questions, of course. Both the filibuster and the blue slip are simply rules of the Senate, and as such subject to change as the members decide. That comes straight from Article 1, Section 5.

Each House may determine the rules of its proceedings, punish its members for disorderly behavior, and, with the concurrence of two thirds, expel a member.

Beyond the rules of order, though, we still hear arguments – generally from the party controlling the White House – that all of this procedural nonsense is a big waste of time, well beyond the intention of the Founders, and that the President, having won the election, should be able to appoint who he wishes. I’ve been close to that school of thought at times, since there is some validity to it. The appointments would, logically, reflect the tastes of the man or woman who just won the national election, and the Senate should really just be a backstop against an absolutely corrupt choice.

But is that really what the Founders intended? Some parts of the constitution are rather murky, with very little historical context to clarify them for us. (For just one of many examples, what the heck did “high crimes and misdemeanors” mean at the time it was written? I submit that nobody alive today knows for sure what they meant.) But in the case of advice and consent, Alexander Hamilton left us a pretty good road map in Federalist 76. He starts out with an explanation which, at first glance, actually makes it sound like it was their intention for the President to do all of the picking because he would be more qualified to the task.

Those who have themselves reflected upon the subject, or who have attended to the observations made in other parts of these papers, in relation to the appointment of the President, will, I presume, agree to the position, that there would always be great probability of having the place supplied by a man of abilities, at least respectable. Premising this, I proceed to lay it down as a rule, that one man of discernment is better fitted to analyze and estimate the peculiar qualities adapted to particular offices, than a body of men of equal or perhaps even of superior discernment.

Hamilton supports this argument by saying that a single individual would not be subject to the distractions and internal fighting that any committee would be subject to, and as such could make appointment decisions with greater clarity of mind. So why not eliminate the role of the Senate entirely? On the one hand, he felt that such an advisory role was a prudent precaution, but he also demonstrated a complete lack of ability in prognostication when he claimed that it shouldn’t matter, because the Senate would hardly ever shoot down a Presidential nomination to begin with.

But might not his nomination be overruled? I grant it might, yet this could only be to make place for another nomination by himself. The person ultimately appointed must be the object of his preference, though perhaps not in the first degree. It is also not very probable that his nomination would often be overruled. The Senate could not be tempted, by the preference they might feel to another, to reject the one proposed; because they could not assure themselves, that the person they might wish would be brought forward by a second or by any subsequent nomination. They could not even be certain, that a future nomination would present a candidate in any degree more acceptable to them; and as their dissent might cast a kind of stigma upon the individual rejected, and might have the appearance of a reflection upon the judgment of the chief magistrate, it is not likely that their sanction would often be refused, where there were not special and strong reasons for the refusal.

Hamilton’s judgement about why it would mostly be foolish to oppose a nomination is a solid one. If you succeed in defeating the choice, you don’t get to pick the replacement, so you’ll probably get more of the same if not worse. Where he failed was in his prediction that this would prevent the Senate from often defeating them, which should come as hilarious news to any Democrat in 2005 or any Republican today.

But in the end, Hamilton registered the final word on why the Senate is not a rubber stamp. (A concern expressed by Hatch in his editorial above.)

To what purpose then require the co-operation of the Senate? I answer, that the necessity of their concurrence would have a powerful, though, in general, a silent operation. It would be an excellent check upon a spirit of favoritism in the President, and would tend greatly to prevent the appointment of unfit characters from State prejudice, from family connection, from personal attachment, or from a view to popularity. In addition to this, it would be an efficacious source of stability in the administration.

And there you have it. Even if it is eventually slimmed down to nothing more than a requirement for rounding up 51 votes with no debate, the reason for the role of the Senate is right there for us. And unless you plan on amending the Constitution in direct defiance of what the Founders expressed, that’s how it’s going to stay.


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Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Will Hillary voters hand the GOP nomination to Rand Paul?

WillHillaryvotershandtheGOPnominationto

Will Hillary voters hand the GOP nomination to Rand Paul?

posted at 4:41 pm on April 9, 2014 by Allahpundit

A fiendishly clever theory from Peter Beinart. Remember “Operation Chaos”? That was Rush Limbaugh’s plan to have GOP voters wreak havoc on the Democratic nominating process in 2008. With McCain’s nomination already all but assured and Obama clinging to an apparently insurmountable lead over Hillary, Rush encouraged Republicans in states with open primaries (i.e. states where you don’t have to be registered as a party member to vote in that party’s primary) to cross over and vote for Hillary in the Democratic primary instead. The idea was to drag the primary process out for Democrats as long as possible, forcing O to keep campaigning to protect his lead and encouraging further bloodletting between Obama and Clinton.

Fast-forward eight years. Assuming Hillary waltzes to the nomination in 2016 while the GOP primary is as competitive as everyone expects, it’ll be Democratic voters who’ll have nothing to lose by crossing over and voting in the other team’s primary. And who’s likely to benefit from that, Beinart asks?

When it comes to government’s role in the economy, Paul’s views are diametrically opposed to most Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. But that will be true of his major opponents too. What distinguishes Paul is that on some high-profile issues—government spying, military intervention, prison sentences—he espouses views that many Democrats find not only agreeable, but downright exciting. On NSA surveillance, for instance, Paul probably better represents the views of many grassroots liberal activists than do many Washington Democrats. Paul is more reluctant to send American troops into harm’s way than Hillary Clinton. The recently discovered speech in which he suggested Dick Cheney pushed for the Iraq War so that Halliburton would profit.

If liberals don’t know that Paul holds these views now, they will by 2016. With the Democratic primary campaign a snooze, the press will devote massive attention to the GOP race. And Paul’s Republican opponents will mercilessly attack him for his unorthodox national-security views, thus likely winning him even more sympathy among liberal Democrats and Independents.

The best model for all this is 2000 when John McCain—although a conventional Republican on many issues—titillated Democrats with his crusade for campaign-finance reform and his criticism of George W. Bush’s plan for to cut taxes for the rich. The more the GOP establishment demonized McCain, the more Democrats and liberal independents figured he must be doing something right. Independents comprised almost a third of the voters in the New Hampshire primary that year, and they favored McCain over Bush by 42 points.

As the most left-leaning candidate in the GOP field on social issues and civil liberties, Paul’s a natural choice for Democrats who are bored with their own primary. There’ll also be other Democrats who cross over to vote for him (and probably for Cruz) for purely strategic reasons, because they’re convinced that a right-wing ideologue will be the easiest candidate for Hillary to beat in the general election. Regardless of motive, Paul himself will eat this up because it plays directly into his big theme of the past year, that Republicans need to grow the party and win votes from constituencies who typically ignore them. If he squeaks to a huge win in New Hampshire or South Carolina (both of which have open primaries) and exit polls show a significant share of his vote came from Democrats, he’ll tout it as proof that he’s doing exactly what he said he’d do. He grew the party. He got voters across the aisle excited enough to vote for him in a Republican primary. Some of them will surely stick with him for the general election. Right?

A few questions, though. One: Given the roundhouses that Rand’s been throwing at Bill Clinton, how many Hillary fans will refuse to vote for him on principle? I think Paul’s concluded that one way he can impress conservatives who are trying to choose between him and Cruz is to get out in front on scrapping with the Clintons. It raises his visibility and signals that he’d be a fighter as a nominee. If that’s true, then he’s sure to attack both of them more often over the next 15 months. Hillary supporters will notice and that’ll make it harder to pull the lever for him, even for strategic reasons.

Two: Personally, if the GOP primary were meaningless, I might consider voting for someone in the Democratic primary only if I thought he/she stood a fair chance of winning the general election. There’d be strategic value in that since I’d be helping to narrow the options to lead the country in a way that excludes outcomes that are less acceptable to me. If, however, I were convinced that the Democrat I’m inclined to vote for has little chance of being elected, I wouldn’t bother voting at all. Why waste the vote? In that case, I’m better off voting for the weakest Democrat in the field to make it easier for the GOP in the general. Point being, it’ll be conventional wisdom among both Democrats and many Republicans come 2016 that Paul, if nominated, simply cannot win. Beinart himself describes Paul as a right-wing McGovern in the making. If you’re a Democrat voting in an open GOP primary, you might vote for him for that reason, that he’s a patsy. But why would you drag yourself down to the polling place to vote for the most left-ish candidate in a right-wing group if you also think he’s unelectable? I think Beinart’s theory is likelier to play out as a true Operation Chaos, with Dems voting strategically, than them voting for Paul in earnest.

Three: All of this depends on how long Democrats wait before they set about trying to destroy Paul. Do they wait until he’s the nominee or do they start earlier to prepare the ground for the scorched-earth campaign to come? Everything in presidential politics starts earlier these days; the stronger Paul looks next fall, before anyone’s voted, the more tempted Democrats will be to unfurl their anti-Paul narrative — he’s a neo-confederate, he wants to destroy the welfare state, he wants to eliminate workplace protections, he won’t defend the country, and on and on. Democratic voters will be getting a steady diet of this before, I think, the first caucuses in Iowa open. That being so, how many rank-and-file Dems will be eager to cross over for him? And bear in mind, at the same time Democratic groups are attacking him, Paul himself will be busy trying to sell himself as a fairly orthodox conservative to mainstream righties, which means downplaying some of those libertarian social impulses that Democrats find appealing. Doesn’t mean Beinart’s totally wrong — Paul will get votes from indies and Democrats — but is the crossover effect enough to prove decisive? I wonder.


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Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Bill Kristol: C’mon, there’s no way Jeb Bush will be the nominee

BillKristol:C’mon,there’snowayJebBush

Bill Kristol: C’mon, there’s no way Jeb Bush will be the nominee

posted at 3:21 pm on April 8, 2014 by Allahpundit

Ben Smith said the same thing yesterday, writing that “the notion that Jeb Bush is going to be the Republican presidential nominee is a fantasy nourished by the people who used to run the Republican Party.” Used to? We went into battle against ObamaCare in 2012 with the guy who signed a law that paved the way for ObamaCare. We faced an electorate that was war-weary after five years of Iraq in 2008 with the most hawkish possible candidate we could find. Never, ever underestimate the establishment’s ability to sell a bad candidate to the masses of Republican primary voters who don’t pay much attention to politics and are eager for a familiar, theoretically “electable” choice. Tell ‘em what’s up, Ramesh:

As I’ve argued in several Bloomberg columns, the party since 1984 has given its presidential nomination only to people who are at its ideological center of gravity or to its left, and never to anyone to its right. There are reasons for that pattern — having to do with, among other things, the perennial inability of the party’s right to agree on a candidate — and those reasons haven’t disappeared.

Neither Perry nor Huntsman had the support of the party’s establishment, or the national network of funders and supporters, that Bush would have. Perry’s notorious immigration comment during the 2012 campaign — he called some of his opponents heartless on the issue — harmed him so badly because he needed to solidify the conservative end of the party against an establishment candidate, Mitt Romney…

Bush’s position within the primary electorate, in other words, would be more like that of Senator John McCain — who won the nomination not so long ago, in 2008. Actually, it would be better than McCain’s, as McCain’s record included a lot more deviations from the party line than Bush’s does.

Let me paint you a picture. Bush announces he’s running. Soon after, Rubio announces that he isn’t, having concluded that too many of his potential advisors and fundraisers will gravitate towards Jeb. Paul Ryan likewise decides he’ll pass, figuring his best bet at influence is as the next Ways and Means chairman. Bush hits the trail, talking up education reform and ticking off a few well-chosen points of disagreement with his brother’s foreign policy. Meanwhile, Christie, his main rival for establishment support, is too damaged by Bridgegate and never gathers much momentum. Neither does Jindal, who’s overshadowed by bigger-name candidates both to his left (Bush) and his right (Rand Paul and Ted Cruz) and can’t quite find a niche. Bush, now largely unchallenged in the center and center-right, consolidates their support. Over on the right, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz bash each other’s brains in on foreign policy and the NSA until one of them emerges as the conservative choice. That’s when Bush’s backers launch a ferocious campaign attacking Cruz/Paul as fringe material — government shutdowns! a disarmed military! — who’ll never stand a chance against Hillary. It works and Jeb sweeps to the nomination, only to lose badly in the general when voters are forced to decide whether they want to return to “the Clinton era” or “the Bush era.” The only X factor in all this is Scott Walker, who’s prominent enough after his big fight with the unions to find the sort of niche that’ll elude Jindal. He could be a compromise candidate between the right, which fears that Cruz and Paul really aren’t electable, and the center, which fears that the Bush brand will be poison in the general election. Bushworld will have to deal with Walker somehow. If he loses his bid for reelection as governor in Wisconsin, that’ll do it, but no one expects him to. How do you destroy him on the launch pad?

When push comes to shove, I think the GOP establishment in the tea-party era regards its first and most important duty to be stopping conservative candidates in the primary. Partly that’s because they think ideologues can’t win a national election, partly it’s because they fear the diminution of their own power if someone like Paul becomes president, and partly it’s because I think they’d feel more comfortable with center-leftists like the Clintons, who won’t do anything “unpredictable,” than they would with GOP wild cards like Paul or Cruz. If you want to stop Jeb, you need to give them a better centrist alternative. Thanks to Bridgegate, there probably isn’t one — although maybe Walker, betting that tea partiers won’t turn on him after winning the war over labor in Wisconsin, will position himself ostentatiously as a centrist for the presidential race. And if you want them to support a right-wing nominee in the general, in the unlikely event that we end up with a right-wing nominee, you need the left to nominate an “unpredictable” liberal so that they can embrace the GOP nominee as the lesser of two evils. Elizabeth Warren would fit the bill. But that’s probably not happening either.


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Friday, February 28, 2014

WaPo: Every Romney donor we’ve spoken to recently wants Jeb Bush for 2016

WaPo:EveryRomneydonorwe’vespokentorecently

WaPo: Every Romney donor we’ve spoken to recently wants Jeb Bush for 2016

posted at 3:21 pm on February 28, 2014 by Allahpundit

There’s no way around it. America’s political establishment wants Bush vs. Clinton II.

Is resistance futile?

Every single Romney donor we spoke with this week listed the former Florida governor as their top choice…

Also, with solid name recognition and the Bush political machine behind him, Romney donors believe Jeb is the most electable of the potential Republican candidates. For Romney donors, electability is the single most important trait.

“If Jeb Bush is in the race, he clears the field,” said one major Romney donor. “You would have someone who has the talent that is equal to Mitt. The natural inclination for Mitt supporters would be to gravitate toward Jeb Bush because he’s a candidate that can win a national race.”

Another huge factor that would help Bush — who has contacted some donors about their receptiveness to a presidential bid and is believed to be seriously considering throwing his hat in the ring — is that his current gig as a senior adviser to Barclays Capital has helped him meet many of the Northeastern private equity types who filled Romney’s campaign coffers.

Christie’s Bridgegate crumble is contributing to Bush fee-vah, but like WaPo says, Christie had already burned some bridges with Mittworld by babbling praise for Obama over Sandy relief the weekend before the 2012 election. Bush has been waiting around for Christiemania to cool among Republican centrists, and now it is, so here we are.

Help me understand this, though:

“If Jeb Bush is in the race, he clears the field,” said one major Romney donor.

Which field? Crowning George Bush’s brother the new king of the Beltway Republicans isn’t going to scare tea-party candidates out of the race. Rand Paul would rather face Christie than Bush for various reasons — Bridgegate, lower name recognition, smaller donor network, plus the fact that Christie has antagonized many more Republicans over the last few years than Bush has — but there are advantages to running against Jeb too. Now he gets to attack not just a RINO but a dynastic RINO, whose own mother thinks it’s poor form for the family to monopolize Republican nominations. Paul’s brand is that he’s a new kind of Republican; nothing would underscore that like running against a Bush, which means he might attract some voters who have issues with him but nonetheless want fresh faces in the party’s leadership. (I’m one of them. I like Paul but doubt I’d support him in the primaries — unless we’re given a stark “old guard versus new guard” choice.) And Paul may relish running against Bush even though it would make his task harder. If you want to shift the Republican Party’s foreign policy paradigm to noninterventionism, you can do worse than have George W. Bush’s brother as your opponent.

What the donor quoted by WaPo probably meant was that Bush would clear the centrist field. No more Christie: He’d conclude that he’s too badly damaged to beat a well-funded Jeb and decide to support him instead. No more Rubio: The Florida Republican establishment would swing behind Jeb, leaving Rubio with no operational base. Probably no more Paul Ryan either. Even if he was inclined to run, it’d be hard to make bank with Mitt’s old donors stampeding towards Bush and hard to turn to grassroots righties for support given that they’re peeved at him over amnesty and last year’s budget. But … what about Scott Walker or Bobby Jindal, who seems like he’s quietly building a proto-campaign? They’d make the same calculation that Paul will — that some segment of Republicans will blanch at the thought of nominating another Bush, whether out of objections to dynasticism or because they fear the “Bush” name is unelectable at this point, and jump in. They’d sell themselves as the Goldilocks option, more conservative than Crown Prince Jeb and more mainstream than Paul, and pull donations from both sides of the party. If/when the center and right reach a stalemate on Bush versus Paul, Walker or Jindal will be there as a compromise choice. The field won’t clear, unless your idea of “the field” runs no further to the right than Rubio.


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Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Lefties desperately searching for reasons not to nominate Hillary

Leftiesdesperatelysearchingforreasonsnottonominate

Lefties desperately searching for reasons not to nominate Hillary

posted at 7:21 pm on February 12, 2014 by Allahpundit

No judgment here. I remember a lot of long, bleak nights in 2010 spent trying to talk myself into believing that the GOP would never nominate a candidate whose state health-care initiative paved the way for ObamaCare. Sure, he was next in line and would outspend all his opponents and had a business resume that might prove attractive in a battered economy. But there were lots of ways to stop him. Weren’t there?

If Hillary wants the nomination, nothing’s going to stop her. And the worse Obama’s second term gets, the fewer Democrats there’ll be who are willing to forfeit her electoral advantages in order to roll the dice on a purer liberal like Elizabeth Warren with one-tenth the name recognition of the Clintons and one-thousandth the fundraising potential. There’s a cold calculation coming, just as there was for Romney: At the end of the day, who’s most likely to help us win power? Lay aside what he or she might do with that power. At a bare minimum, no matter how bad it gets, at least we’ll be keeping the ball away from the other team.

They’ll come around. Kubler-Ross is a process, after all. But for now, we’re in the early stages. Via Mediaite, watch below as Krystal Ball wonders whether Hillary should skip 2016 because she’s not blue-collar enough. I’m thinking union members will be okay with her, especially once she starts pandering on income inequality Warren-style and especially if her opponent’s Scott Walker. Or read this from National Journal, lamenting that Hillary’s sucking up political oxygen that rightfully belongs to the party’s up-and-comers. Question: Should the most formidable Democratic candidate in America step aside so that no-name losers like Martin O’Malley can take their rightful place at the head of the crowd?

By 2016, it will have been eight years since Democrats have had a contested primary, and if Clinton is effectively anointed the nominee and wins the presidency (still two big ifs), it will have been 16 years by the 2024 cycle. That’s a long time without the incubation chamber for national leaders that primaries provide. A run, or even the anticipation thereof, draws media attention and voters’ interest, boosting the potential candidate’s national profile.

Republicans have developed a farm team of up-and-coming elected officials considering presidential bids. Just look at leaders in their 40s who, if not candidates themselves, can at least serve as national surrogates for the party. In the Congress there’s Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, along with 2012 vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan. In the statehouses, there’s Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Most have positioned themselves as part of a new generation of reformers.

The story is very different for Democrats. There are just two well-known potential 2016 candidates in their 40s: New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker. Ask Democratic strategists for examples of other younger up-and-comers, and you’ll hear names like Julian and Joaquin Castro, the congressman and San Antonio mayor, respectively. And California Attorney General Kamala Harris is always touted, despite her limited political experience.

That’s not only the fault of Clinton’s shadow. The 2010 Republican wave wiped out many Democratic officeholders, including many governors, which are traditionally the primary pool of presidential contenders.

Kirsten Gillibrand versus Scott Walker? I’ll take those odds. Hillary and Bill Clinton versus Scott Walker? I’m less eager to bet. Besides, if lefties are worried about their ticket being insufficiently diverse (with the would-be first woman president at the top of the ticket?), they can take comfort in the fact that Cory Booker’s almost certainly going to be their VP nominee. Doesn’t matter who they end up nominating for president. Democrats are deathly afraid that increased turnout among minority voters for Obama’s two elections will dissipate once he’s out of politics. If the “Obama coalition” falls apart, they’re in trouble — although Hillary, probably uniquely among Dems, might be able to make up the shortfall with increased support from women. Regardless, Booker, who’ll have spent roughly as much time in the Senate by 2016 as Obama had in 2008, is one way to hedge against that.

Exit question: How soon will it be before lefties seize on Hillary’s ruthlessness as a new reason to block her? Bridgegate is an easy peg for a pretext like that. E.g., “How can we criticize Chris Christie for bullying when we’re poised to re-nominate a couple who keep an enemies’ list?” Needless to say, the nanosecond her nomination is assured, they’ll get over it.

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